Route Development & Rumours

[gulftraveller]

Agreed. That is normally the larger airport.

 

[TM3]

It's a pity that the anna,aero site historic pages have been taken down when it was sold. One such article on 24th Jan 2017 allowed me to extract this info

MAN-BKK market size around 135,000 passengers a year
BHX-BKK market size around 45,000 passengers p

I'd like to pick you up on these figures. Anna Aero used to get these figures from Skyscanner searches and this is not a measure of demand as such.

I much prefer the earlier stat you used about the number of passengers annual travelling from MAN to BKK. Do you have a comparible figure for BHX, if not where can I get that figure.

I believe the figure would be less, but there would be nothing like the disparity you are quoting here.

 

[mullion]

Those figures from David I have seen before and I believe to be correct infact if anything are higher,
Manchester has the highest figures in Europe for BKK and not served and has for many years

 

[laviation]

The conversation is largely theoretical, of course Thai will launch MAN before BHX. It was due for summer 2024 but may be next year.

 

[mullion]

or 2025 or 2026 as they were announcing many many years ago and nothing happened.

Ha ha that was a quick reply 23R

 

[Aviador]

An airline wont choose a destination on the basis of the size of an airport. They will look at the wider picture. Are there any businesses in the area that might use their service? Is there an ex-pat population that might benefit from having a new direct flight instead of using a competing airline such as Emirates? Has the airline acquired statistics reporting on the number of tourists travelling between the two cities that might benefit from having a direct flight? Its not a case of this city is bigger than the other so we'll fly there. One airline might suit Manchester really well, another might suit Birmingham or Edinburgh better. If you look at flights to the States from the US for example. Edinburgh will pull in the US tourists where as Manchester might benefit from outbound tourism. Perhaps not many people want to import or export cargo from Manchester, whereas the Scots might be able to move their Walker Shortbread by the ton. It really isn't as clear cut as some make out.

 

[TM3]

The conversation is largely theoretical, of course Thai will launch MAN before BHX. It was due for summer 2024 but may be next year.

Well it is the route rumours thread.....

I'm not making a prediction either way I'm just pointing out at Nobby63 said that no airport has a "device right" to serve any particular airline. And there are still some very solid reasons for a BKK service at BHX, it doesn't need to be Thai as access to BKK is fairly liberal, once a carrier has bagged the route its unlikley to attract any competition.

This is another route that SQ could potentially serve to the UK via a 5th freedom stop in BKK.

 

[Aviador]

Well it is the route rumours thread.....

I'm not making a prediction either way I'm just pointing out at Nobby63 said that no airport has a "device right" to serve any particular airline. And there are still some very solid reasons for a BKK service at BHX, it doesn't need to be Thai as access to BKK is fairly liberal, once a carrier has bagged the route its unlikley to attract any competition.

This is another route that SQ could potentially serve to the UK via a 5th freedom stop in BKK.

I suppose there will be the added benefit of having HS2 linking Birmingham and London which enables Birmingham to pick up the slack of some London traffic. There again, Manchester airport is considered even by those who prefer to use LBA or LPL as their airport of choice for transcontinental flights which will further boost Manchester ability to offer these flights.

 

[TM3]

I suppose there will be the added benefit of having HS2 linking Birmingham and London which enables Birmingham to pick up the slack of some London traffic. There again, Manchester airport is considered even by those who prefer to use LBA or LPL as their airport of choice for transcontinental flights which will further boost Manchester ability to offer these flights.

I think MAN is maxed out right now for US flights. Despite all the hype Virgin haven't got enough traction there for daily JFKs or daily ATLs. If their operations there are all about PAX an not cargo really they need to look at some narrowbody options to consolidate.

Aer Lingus seem to be doing well but as they are IAG owned they aren't going to compete too agressively with BA, who have most routes covered due to 7 a day connections to LHR, which is the best transatlantic hub in Europe. I would say Aer Lingus's presence is really to block off any Virgin expansion. This is straight out of the old school BA playbook and it seems to be working.

 

[mullion]

TM3 I`m not sure why you are trying to wind everybody up but you started with BHX and MAN where next LPL because what you are saying is rubbish as we know Virgin have no extra aircraft this year and Aer Lingus are ready to expand also 2025

 

[TM3]

TM3 I`m not sure why you are trying to wind everybody up but you started with BHX and MAN where next LPL because what you are saying is rubbish as we know Virgin have no extra aircraft this year and Aer Lingus are ready to expand also 2025

Virgin do have other aircraft though, it's just they think they can earn more money elsewhere.

Maybe they are happy for Aer Lingus to continue to grow but it appears they have fallen back considerably from the bold claims they were making in 2017 to turm Manchester into a hub in the north.

 

[EGCC_MAN]

Virgin do have other aircraft though, it's just they think they can earn more money elsewhere.

Nope. It's because they emerged from covid with much reduced fleet-strength and high value Heathrow slots MUST be protected.

 

[TM3]

Nope. It's because they emerged from covid with much reduced fleet-strength and high value Heathrow slots MUST be protected.

Virgin have enough flexibility in their fleet to put another aircraft at MAN if they want to. They also have discretion as to which aircraft the take when and which they let go. They can also co-ordinate with Delta to have them service routes if they want to (like they do at Edinburgh and LHR). They just didn't do it.

Before COVID they had more seats but (but not daily services to JFK or ATL). I would have expected that retiring the 747s would have given them the chance to go daily on both routes whilst still reducing the number of seats overall.

Even to me it's surprising that their ambitions were so conservative that they have surrendered those seats to Aer Lingus, and basically allowed IAG to head off any potential expansion at MAN.

I do agree that they will want to protect slots at LHR but this in itself says something about where their priorities are and where they see opportunity.

 

[gulftraveller]

I do agree that they will want to protect slots at LHR but this in itself says something about where their priorities are and where they see opportunity.

Just as you make an error comparing BHX with MAN, so too you make an error comparing MAN with LHR. With slots there trading for £75 million plus, of course they have to protect slots at LHR before any other priority, even if L/Fs are not always stellar. VS have rightly been cautious post covid in rebuilding and expanding their network given the dire financial situation they found themselves in. They may have aircraft but they need people to fly them and this has been a problem. They must build resilience into the system before committing to major expansion.

 

[Chilly Dog]

So I can see data on the value of tickets sold on some major travel sites/ meta search sites.

It‘s correct to say the average (adult, return) fare from BHX to BKK is higher than that from MAN - £950 vs £907. Somewhat closer than quoted above.

You could argue that these numbers are not a true reflection since the carriers are somewhat different for each airport - possibly the average fare on Cathay or Emirates is higher than Air India or Kuwait.

When looking only at airlines that offer BKK from both BHX and MAN, then the average ticket paid from MAN is around £80 higher than that from BHX.

That’s the cleanest comparison I can think of - so conclusion is that airlines are charging (=earning?) more on MAN-BKK than BHX-BKK.

Adding too that demand (measured in this case by number of customer flight searches) is significantly higher from MAN than from BHX.

 

[IanFarquharson]

Virgin have enough flexibility in their fleet to put another aircraft at MAN if they want to. to

I dont think they have !

 

[TM3]

So I can see data on the value of tickets sold on some major travel sites/ meta search sites.

It‘s correct to say the average (adult, return) fare from BHX to BKK is higher than that from MAN - £950 vs £907. Somewhat closer than quoted above.

You could argue that these numbers are not a true reflection since the carriers are somewhat different for each airport - possibly the average fare on Cathay or Emirates is higher than Air India or Kuwait.

When looking only at airlines that offer BKK from both BHX and MAN, then the average ticket paid from MAN is around £80 higher than that from BHX.

That’s the cleanest comparison I can think of - so conclusion is that airlines are charging (=earning?) more on MAN-BKK than BHX-BKK.

Adding too that demand (measured in this case by number of customer flight searches) is significantly higher from MAN than from BHX.

I accept there are variations over the year and picking more data might give a different figure but your test seems to concur with mine that tickets are cheaper on MAN-BKK that BHX-BKK as a significiant proportion of customers will pick the absolute cheapest fares on the route.

A significant number of passengers will book the cheapest available and that is the important number.

I can't really see the logic behind cherry picking certain fares as you are doing other than to skew the numbers in order to reach a different conclusion - if you think I'm wrong here you need to explain why.

Flight searches isn't really a good measure of demand, even more so when it is only tied to one search engine. I'm happy to highlight some of the reasons these figures are not proportionate with demand if you want.

The number of passengers travelling on that route via one stops from both airports would have been a useful comparison but at the moment David has only produced that figure for MAN. If he could provide the figure at BHX or say where he got the figure from that would be useful.

I dont think they have !

I haven't seen any press releases from Virgin about a shortage of aircraft.

Based on Virgin's COVID restructuring plan they retired 11 frames; 7 747s and 4 A330s.

Having looked at their fleet https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Virgin-Atlantic?refresh=1

They have accepted 6 A350s and 4 A330s.

This only leaves them 1 frame down on before COVID, even after closing Gatwick and consolidating those routes at LHR.

Aside from that they also announced they were going to take 16 A330-900s but have only taken 4 so far.

There is also no consideration of the backfill they could be getting from Delta. Pre-COVID Delta were going to operate Boston but there has been no mention of that.

In order to be a "hub" you need to be transferring passengers from (at least) one of you planes to another and nothing anything like this looks like every being established. It's not that opportunities don't exist VS could operate BKK and that would feed the 2 destinations they already have, neither of which have direct Bangkok flights.

 

[mullion]

Oh give up please most of the Gatwick flights transfered over to Heathrow and the Heathrow slots have to be used or lost forever, when the extra aircraft join the fleet next year at least one probably two will be available for Manchester same with Aer Lingus UK which should be upto 4 aircraft next spring.

 

[TM3]

Oh give up please most of the Gatwick flights transfered over to Heathrow and the Heathrow slots have to be used or lost forever, when the extra aircraft join the fleet next year at least one probably two will be available for Manchester same with Aer Lingus UK which should be upto 4 aircraft next spring.

Not sure what your point is, obviously LHR slots are now being filled by ex-Gatwick planes and Virgin are now only one frame short of their pre-COVID restructure.

Plus there are now less seats out of MAN overall than pre-COVID with apparently no plans to go daily on JFK or ATL.

Do you have any press releases etc about Virgin moving more aircraft to MAN or going daily on those routes or is it just wishful thinking?

 

[gulftraveller]

Maybe I have missed something but VS is showing daily to both destinations this summer. That is on the booking engine.

The reason there are fewer seats than pre covid is to do with the exchange rate and the unpopularity of holidaying in USA compared with a few years ago. US airlines are still reinforcing outbound holiday destinations rather than city pairs.

I know that BHX to US passenger numbers are the same as pre covid. Maybe that would be worthy of a debate on a BHX forum because, as far as I can see, this debate has no merit.