Route Development & Rumours

[laviation]

I do see this as baby steps for a proper BA operation ex MAN.

No risk at all to BA, and is a chance to woo over some more customers if the programme is successful.

Potential Caribbean charters in W24, then move to T2 in S25. There is the recurring talk of a Euroflyer base - accompanied by the supposed plan to take over EIUK. - the future looks interesting for BA ex MAN if even one of those comes to fruition!

I believe this will be 1 weekly ANU & BGI same as this year. Most probably will be operated with Gatwick 777s if this does come off.

 

[David_itl]

Do they have the spare aircraft to do this line of work or is it a case of as other long-haul aircraft arrive at LHR, they will displace 777s to LGW?

 

[Land23R]

S.P.D. Travels on X has posted: -

"There appears to have been a slots update for Manchester S24. Unfortunately, Saudia to Riyadh no longer there. Nor is SAS to Stavanger or Pegasus to Izmir.
The good news is though, RAM to Casablanca and Juneyao to Shanghai are still active."

Disappointing re Saudia. Perhaps we could have expected a frequency increase on JED instead but the web site still shows 5 x weekly with no flights Wed./Fri.
I hope Air India are still in as well as Juneyao.

 

[gulftraveller]

I suppose Jeddah has better transfer connections than Riyadh. Maybe the original service increase from Manchester to Jeddah will now be reinstated.

With the entry of Riyadh Air into the market, Saudia will doubtless increasingly confine themselves to Jeddah. I expect Riyadh Air will include Manchester in their route network at an early stage.

 

[laviation]

Air India are still in however dont show on the MAN timetables - daily Mumbai for them

Bangkok is rumoured but no slot application until they’re almost certain they’ll launch (via SPD)

 

[Ben Speck]

Credit to Sean m on twitter. Might be one to watch for sure.

 

[Aviador]

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[laviation]

Came up in conversation about how MAN was the 3rd biggest market in Europe for the Middle East just behind CDG & LHR - and if we have grown since then.

I have compiled a comparison, S18 Start of Season vs S24 Initial Coordination. Turkey and Cyprus have been omitted as they are mostly charter flights / they are arguably not part of the Middle East (Istanbul is in Europe for example). All data is thanks to ACL.

I will also compare MAN-USA/Canada - will do S18 (peak) v S20 (initial) v S24 (now)

 

[domino85]

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Is this because a screenshot was used? Rather than plain text of the info and the source? Just after clarification

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[David_itl]

one of the more intriguing things to look out for in the next 12 to 18 months is what the ME3 will do for capacity should we end up with Mumbai, Delhi and Bangkok featuring as non-stop destinations with A350s/788s making them more viable and after relevant airlines have "backfilled" all reduced pre-Covid routes. EY may not do too much, QR will probably stabilise all 3 frequencies with the sane type operating all services (possibly 789s) but it's EK that I believe we could have the biggest impact with the downgrading to 77W from one of the 2-class A380s

 

[David_itl]

Following on from my previous post, I don't recollect seeing this reported last year but this breakdown of UK-India from April 2023 actually states this
"When indirect and non-stop traffic is combined, Delhi was the UK’s leading market (27.1% of passengers), then Mumbai (21.0%), Kochi (8.6%), Bengaluru (7.1%) and Ahmedabad (6.7%). In the UK, London LHR was unsurprisingly first (81.0%), but Manchester – no longer with India flights – was second, albeit very distantly (7.1%). Still, more than 200,000 passengers travelled to/from India – yet it is unserved."

The total market was 3.1 million seats available. MAN would come in at 220,000 passengers or 603 passengers per day

I would be intrigued on a route by route breakdown for MAN flights and whether the BHX-India routes actually have higher profit potential for AI and so get operated despite being an overall lower demand with the MAN providing volume at lower ticket prices,

 

[Land23R]

On short haul, it's been mentioned that easyjet, ryanair and Jet 2 will all have an extra based aircraft at MAN for S24. Easyjet has been confirmed by the airline I believe, while for Jet 2, it's reported that 2 x B737s will replace an A330 - An extra frame but not many additional seats. However, Jet2 are adding flights for early and late season I think.

Perhaps I've missed something, but I've seen little confirmed about ryanair for MAN except a new route (for summer) of Tirana. and an additional based a/c per the initial ACL report. Looking at SeanM on X, there's been a plethora of new route announcements by the airline, including for BHX, EDI and BOH, but nothing for MAN - or indeed the other 2 MAG airports as far as I know.

Unless there are significant increases in frequencies, or there are further announcements to come, I'm not seeing an extra based a/c being necessary.

Of course, although ryanair are good at promoting new routes, they are also prone to quietly dropping services. Aircraft deliveries have also been a factor.

The next ACL report after the hand back deadline may provide a fuller picture.

 

[mullion]

I`m sure I read that Easyjet will be also adding flights from European bases

 

[Land23R]

I`m sure I read that Easyjet will be also adding flights from European bases

Yes, I read that too. Very encouraging as well as an additional based aircraft.

Just an update to my earlier post following comments by a very reliable source.

I'm told that Jet 2 were basing an extra a/c at MAN anyway before the replaced A330 with 2 x B737s, so that's an extra 2 stands required. It appears that MAN is looking strong for Jet 2 in S24 despite the new LPL base.

There is an extra based frame for Ryanair with possibly 2 new routes depending on a/c deliveries.

So, that's more positive than what perhaps I was implying.

 

[laviation]

Air India have withdrawn Summer slots, while no Thai in 2024 either.

Juneyao the last long haul one remaining for S24. That one's still up in the air apparently.

However, S25 looks very promising...

 

[Land23R]

I think we've reached the stage with Air India when it would have been a bigger shock had they held the slots and announced a service from MAN for this summer. As I understand it, they are continuing to get more a/c, so let's see where they operate them that takes priority over MAN.

As for Juneyao??

Laviation, may I ask why you say S25 looks very promising?

 

[laviation]

Juneyao still hold the same 3 weekly, Mon/Wed/Fri B789 slots and dont appear to have withdrew them so as I say probably up in the air

As for S25, it's early days yet, but there are some good rumours- although I must state that S24 looked very rosy this time in 2023, and it looks like we may only do away with one or two 'significant' routes - although the small wins do add up - the likes of AMM, LUX, etc.

Closer to the time some will be firmed up and some wont happen. But for now, it looks promising.

 

[Land23R]

Thanks for your comments.
Was it S22 or S23 when slots were initially held for Air India, Thai, Royal Jordanian and I think Juneyao?
And for a time, some of those were showing on the advance MAN boards, presumably based on the slots.

At least RJ are starting, but it's understandable that some folk are disappointed that MAN are finding it difficult to seal a deal in other cases. Of course, we don't really know how advanced talks were / are with airlines who continue to apply for slots but then withdraw them.

 

[mullion]

Thai must hold the record as I went to two Manchester route launches at least 25 years ago when they even bought the Thai trade delegation over to Manchester, most of them have probably retired by now.

 

[laviation]

In recent years Thai have held slots in S20, S23 and did not apply in S24 although it was 'close'.

Air India have held slots in S23, W23, S24, and appear that they will apply for W24 too.

Royal Jordanian have held in S23 with the route coming off S24

Juneyao were to launch S20, we know what happened then, have applied in S23/4.