Only if they will risk the passenger reaction to the queues etc. due to the creaking infrastructure.
CAA Provisional Statistics Update
- Thread starter Aviador
- Start date
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Only if they will risk the passenger reaction to the queues etc. due to the creaking infrastructure.
Another brilliant set of results from BHX!
As others have pointed out, this explains why there have been problems with the airport (terminal at least) clearly at pretty much capacity.
As Richard pointed out, yes the airport management will have 9 months to implement something, but how much can be done in 9 months?
Where's the biggest bottleneck? Check-in? Security? Departure Lounge? Baggage Reclaim?
In 9 months, "baggage" can be solved through bringing in more ground handlers. Security? Many posters on here have suggested converting the upstairs food court into an extension to the departure lounge. Could some of it be used for that whilst the rest be used for extra security? Check-in??? Who knows.
Considering a new master plan will now likely not be released until the airport has a new CEO in place, I wouldn't expect the new plan to be signed off before next summer, let alone start being implemented
As others have pointed out, this explains why there have been problems with the airport (terminal at least) clearly at pretty much capacity.
As Richard pointed out, yes the airport management will have 9 months to implement something, but how much can be done in 9 months?
Where's the biggest bottleneck? Check-in? Security? Departure Lounge? Baggage Reclaim?
In 9 months, "baggage" can be solved through bringing in more ground handlers. Security? Many posters on here have suggested converting the upstairs food court into an extension to the departure lounge. Could some of it be used for that whilst the rest be used for extra security? Check-in??? Who knows.
Considering a new master plan will now likely not be released until the airport has a new CEO in place, I wouldn't expect the new plan to be signed off before next summer, let alone start being implemented
58terminus
Well-Known Member
Wetherspoons according to Ryanair
Just been doing some number crunching about Emirates & Qatar and noticed a few things.
First off, when Emirates announced they were dropping the morning flight and going A380 on the other 2 flights into BHX, the general consensus on here was that its was quite a drop in capacity and that Qatar would likely up capacity to make up for it.
Number crunching time.
Over the last 12 months, Emirates have carried 739,803 passengers from BHX. A double daily A380 service (high density, no first class) would provide c. 897,900 seats, providing an average load of 82.4% (compared to 68.9% on 1x A380 & 2x B773). Lack of cargo capacity with the A380 has been noted on here before, but it would seem that this is not an issue for Emirates.
Similarly, over the last 12 months, Qatar have carried 138,487 passengers. With a daily 787, this would equate to 74.7%.
Combined, the average load over both Emirates (2x A380) and Qatar (1x B787) would be 81.1%. It would take 2 years with passengers growing at a rate of 10% per year before any extra capacity was needed.
With those figures, how likely is it that either Emirates or Qatar would upgrade capacity to BHX. It was also noted that the drop in capacity might encourage Etihad to finally enter the BHX market - how likely is that given these figures.
(Its also interesting to note that the 739,803 passengers Emirates have carried over the past 12 months would fit into a daily A380 and B773 operation, though that would give a load of 97.2%).
First off, when Emirates announced they were dropping the morning flight and going A380 on the other 2 flights into BHX, the general consensus on here was that its was quite a drop in capacity and that Qatar would likely up capacity to make up for it.
Number crunching time.
Over the last 12 months, Emirates have carried 739,803 passengers from BHX. A double daily A380 service (high density, no first class) would provide c. 897,900 seats, providing an average load of 82.4% (compared to 68.9% on 1x A380 & 2x B773). Lack of cargo capacity with the A380 has been noted on here before, but it would seem that this is not an issue for Emirates.
Similarly, over the last 12 months, Qatar have carried 138,487 passengers. With a daily 787, this would equate to 74.7%.
Combined, the average load over both Emirates (2x A380) and Qatar (1x B787) would be 81.1%. It would take 2 years with passengers growing at a rate of 10% per year before any extra capacity was needed.
With those figures, how likely is it that either Emirates or Qatar would upgrade capacity to BHX. It was also noted that the drop in capacity might encourage Etihad to finally enter the BHX market - how likely is that given these figures.
(Its also interesting to note that the 739,803 passengers Emirates have carried over the past 12 months would fit into a daily A380 and B773 operation, though that would give a load of 97.2%).
nwoody2001
Well-Known Member
- Dec 1, 2014
- 1,622
- 133
Ahhh yes, the joys of stats and facts and how they can be interpreted.
Thanks for the figures coathanger. However, when it comes to trying to determine demand and the yield based on year long averages, the LF stats don't really help for the following reasons:
- looked at capacity as an average across the year assumes demand is the same across a year. We know this isn't the case. If you take Emirates peak months of July-September for example, over the last 12 months it's not uncommon for daily load figures to be between 85-100% based on the 3 daily flights we currently have. When we go to 2x A380s, will only have 83% of the capacity that we had the years before. Yes this means full planes but shows that EK won't be able to meet the demand that exists in peak periods.
- you are using LF levels for 2x 77W and 1x A380 and assuming the same will occurs fir the 2x A380's. Granted this is all we have to go off so that's understandable. However, the the A380s are much more popular to passangers than the 77W. The A380 product is much newer in economy and has flat beds in business, unlike the 77W. Emirates themselves admit that the A380 generated 10% more demand than the 77W
- the stats also assumes that all flights are as popular as eachother when we know that's not the case. For EK, the lunchtime and evening flights are much more popular than the morning flight. These flights are commonly full. Where as the morning flight for EK often struggles. Adding more seats to the popular flights will help some but what happens to those who's more convenient flight was the one being cancelled.
As ever, the stats are insightful but it's a dark art trying to determine their meanings!
We'll find out soon enough wgatvtge real impact will be however with the early morning flight ending at the end of this month!
Thanks for the figures coathanger. However, when it comes to trying to determine demand and the yield based on year long averages, the LF stats don't really help for the following reasons:
- looked at capacity as an average across the year assumes demand is the same across a year. We know this isn't the case. If you take Emirates peak months of July-September for example, over the last 12 months it's not uncommon for daily load figures to be between 85-100% based on the 3 daily flights we currently have. When we go to 2x A380s, will only have 83% of the capacity that we had the years before. Yes this means full planes but shows that EK won't be able to meet the demand that exists in peak periods.
- you are using LF levels for 2x 77W and 1x A380 and assuming the same will occurs fir the 2x A380's. Granted this is all we have to go off so that's understandable. However, the the A380s are much more popular to passangers than the 77W. The A380 product is much newer in economy and has flat beds in business, unlike the 77W. Emirates themselves admit that the A380 generated 10% more demand than the 77W
- the stats also assumes that all flights are as popular as eachother when we know that's not the case. For EK, the lunchtime and evening flights are much more popular than the morning flight. These flights are commonly full. Where as the morning flight for EK often struggles. Adding more seats to the popular flights will help some but what happens to those who's more convenient flight was the one being cancelled.
As ever, the stats are insightful but it's a dark art trying to determine their meanings!
We'll find out soon enough wgatvtge real impact will be however with the early morning flight ending at the end of this month!
I did also look at each month by itself, and 2 daily A380's, with 73,800 seats, would still have provided enough capacity for each of the last 12 months. The highest traffic was 70,214 (April 2017), whilst the lowest was 42,621 (June 2017).
You make a good point about how the A380 has generated additional demand - I know of certain people who have chosen to fly from Heathrow so that they are guaranteed an A380. Equally about different flights on each day. For all we know, the lunchtime and evening flights could be going out almost full, whilst the morning flight could be barely half full and the monthly stats would still be pretty good.
Clearly the last 12 months will be unique and affected by different factors than the next 12 months so its very hard to try and compare. These figures were more to promote discussion about what the MEB3 (or MEB2) could do next - on that point, does anyone have any 'insider knowledge' about potential developments?
Question to anyone who may know - its often quoted that the Emirates morning flight 'struggles' the most out of the 3 daily flights, and this is evident by the fact that its ending at the end of the month. However, Qatar's flights alternate between a morning departure and an afternoon departure. Besides the fact they are on different days of the week, does one flight perform particularly better (or worse) than the other?
You make a good point about how the A380 has generated additional demand - I know of certain people who have chosen to fly from Heathrow so that they are guaranteed an A380. Equally about different flights on each day. For all we know, the lunchtime and evening flights could be going out almost full, whilst the morning flight could be barely half full and the monthly stats would still be pretty good.
Clearly the last 12 months will be unique and affected by different factors than the next 12 months so its very hard to try and compare. These figures were more to promote discussion about what the MEB3 (or MEB2) could do next - on that point, does anyone have any 'insider knowledge' about potential developments?
Question to anyone who may know - its often quoted that the Emirates morning flight 'struggles' the most out of the 3 daily flights, and this is evident by the fact that its ending at the end of the month. However, Qatar's flights alternate between a morning departure and an afternoon departure. Besides the fact they are on different days of the week, does one flight perform particularly better (or worse) than the other?
- Moderator
- #1,007
It was mentioned in the minutes of the last Consultative Committee meeting that EK41/42 is suspended rather than totally cancelled, how long for is anyone's guess. From the wordings it appeared as if Emirates were keen to make EK37/38 an A380 (as mentioned above that generates more pax in itself) and the morning flight was sacrificed to make this happen. Historically new regional services were started on an A330 then upgraded to a 777 when needed, unfortunately with no A330's anymore we went straight in on a 77W and with all of the other capacity increases elsewhere it just proved too much too soon. What we need is Emirates to get either 787's or A350's, either would be great for EK41/42 until such time as it's mature enough to sustain a 77W.
As for 'insider knowledge' I've heard it suggested that Qatar are looking at making the early flight daily which would make them 10x weekly. That's pure rumour though and far from 'official'.
Due any day Ian, maybe tomoz ?
Sadly tomoz has come amd gone and no news.
Sadly this tomoz....oh stuff it will arrive when it arrives.Maybe tomoz
IanFarquharson
Well-Known Member
It will be a record ever month that's for sure
It should we 17% make 1.5m
We should also be passing the 13m pax mark any day now
I am wonering if they going to annouce all the above at Word Routes which starts next weekend ?
It should we 17% make 1.5m
We should also be passing the 13m pax mark any day now
I am wonering if they going to annouce all the above at Word Routes which starts next weekend ?
58terminus
Well-Known Member
Often wondered why it take 2 weeks and more to announce the previous months passenger figures? Presumably the compilers will know day 1 of the following month.Do they have to be officially verified by another body?
Okay. 18th of the month and not a word. To quote the great Marvin..."what's going on?" Admittedly I may have done MG no jistice given that he was singing about the loss of world harmony, peace and tolerance, but come on the person with the passenger counter you must have finished by now...unless the number is so huge that you doubt yourself.
IanFarquharson
Well-Known Member
Still counting appartently
58terminus
Well-Known Member
ridiculous
How are passenger numbers actually recorded? Does the airport depend on the airlines providing passenger numbers, or is it something the airport records themselves?
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