2017

[Marko1]

Any predictions for 2017?

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Jet2 to announce a base in 2018 - 5 based units
Let that debate & rumour start

In ALL SERIOUSNESS;

*easyJet to announce few more routes possibly more based aircrafts for Summer 18.
*Thomson to continue there expansion of BRS - new routes or maybe another based aircraft (737-800?!)
*Will Ryanair announce expansion for Summer 2017?! - Based aircraft to 6.
*Would love to see another full service carrier at BRS; Finnair would be great for eastern connections. BRS would be easily serve by one world of east & west then!
*More expansion from Wizzair.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The main driver is likely to be easyJet, as has been the case for a number of years. They are part way through a five-year agreement with the airport which seems to include an additional based aircraft each year - summer 2017 will see number 14.

Whilst easyJet has been mainly responsible for BRS's phenomenal scheduled short haul network (for an airport of its size), and without which the airport would certainly not be looking at 10 mppa in the next couple of years or so, it almost certainly has restricted other scheduled airlines setting up, particularly locos.

Ryanair is the only other significant scheduled player with bmi regional a niche airline (with very expensive fares for the most part). KLM Cityhopper, Brussels Airlines (operated by bmi regional) and Aer Lingus Regional (Stobart) fly to hubs at AMS, BRU and DUB respectively (as does bmi regional to FRA and MUC). Wizz Air has four routes and WOW flies to Keflavik which is a hub for its North Amercan routes but beyond that (and it seems ever more likely that WOW will pull out at the end of the current winter) BRS's scheduled route network is meagre with airlines such as Aurigny and Blue Islands (now operated by Flybe).

Realistically then, any new scheduled airline would be competing for the most part on some routes already operated by easyJet or Ryanair (in some cases by both). Now whilst there still might be room for another loco, particularly on some of the sun routes, a potential entrant might decide that there would be a better return somewhere else where competition was less intense.

The airport CEO reckons that more than 8 million passengers will be handled in 2017. Looking at the programmes announced so far (and assuming that easyJet will announce that its existing schedule gaps in peak summer will be filled) it still looks as though another 200,000 passengers will have to be found from somewhere.

If it is accepted that neither easyJet nor Ryanair (nor Wizz for that matter) will announce anything significant for next summer beyond what is already in the public domain (and in easyJet's case including an assumption that those schedule gaps will be filled), then only a new scheduled airline for the airport, or a substantial rise in charter traffic, is likely to account for the additional passengers needed to meet the CEO's projection.

 

[Marko1]

I still believe that there be more than one extra easyJet aircraft based next summer. I have no evidence but a really big hunch to that effect. Sadly I don't think jet 2 will be here any time soon as they have confirmed this week that there will be no further bases in the near future other than Bhx and Stn. However I don't believe that 8 mill could be reached without another based low cost carrier. So that may include monarch or a foreign carrier like transavia for example. That could really jolt Ryanair to take brs seriously rather than messing around with routes and aircraft.

At the moment the only truly new route next summer is to zadar in Croatia plus increases to paphos, pula and kefalonia and re-introductions of cancun and Orlando. Other airports have done much better.

 

[kraktoa]

My crystal ball tells me that EzY will have a torrid time of it in 2017. That will have a knock on effect on BRS and the future of EZY in BRS beyond 2017.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

My crystal ball tells me that EzY will have a torrid time of it in 2017. That will have a knock on effect on BRS and the future of EZY in BRS beyond 2017.

That sounds intriguing. Is your crystal ball usually reliable?

 

[kraktoa]

That sounds intriguing. Is your crystal ball usually reliable?

Never won a lottery/raffle/national bond prize in my life. Every horse i have backed has broken its foot and 4 leaved shamrock shed their leaves when i am around.

 

[BRSregular]

I forecast a very uninteresting and uninspiring year with modest growth. It seems this years growth has been 10-12% on last year which is phenomenonal. I can't see that again for next year. Maybe it will be a year of consolidation.

I don't know if BRS needs many new routes I think it needs more frequencies on certain routes. I think people use other airports as they fly more regularly whereas BRS might fly 2 or 3 times per week which isn't convenient for. A lot of people

However I do think there is room for expansion for both Ryanair and Wizz, the latter especially. They have 25 bases including Riga, Budapest, Belgrade, Bratislava, Prague and Kiev. Prague has done well at BRS for 15 years now and some competition would be good, Budapest and Bratislava always had high load factors as did Riga.

I would also like to see some competition on the Barcelona and CDG routes. They have been full and expensive for years.

I agree that BRS needs one or two flag carriers. Finnair is a good shout. They often have some of the lowest fairs to the Far East. What about TAP or Iberia? Would be good for S.American connections although I have no idea of the market from the SouthWest to Rio or Lima.

If I was being really greedy, I'd get Turkish and Qatar.

Oh well, maybe I'll just see what Zadar is like...

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This time last year seemed a challenge to get beyond 7 mppa in 2016. I didn't expect much more than that figure. 2015 had seen 450,000 extra passengers over 2014 (a rise of around 7%) and I couldn't see how this could be bettered in 2016.

Looking at the latest stats published by the airport which are for November (the CAA is still behind the game at the moment when it comes to BRS) it is entirely conceivable that BRS will have handled around 7,550,000 passengers in 2016 which is an increase of about 770,000 passengers on 2015 - a rise of around 11.5%.

Taking the last two years together passenger numbers will have risen from 6.3 million to 7.5 million, in percentage terms in the region of 19%. To reach 8 mppa in 2017 would require around 450,000 additional passengers over 2016, an increase of just under 6%.

Having regard to 2015 and 2016 this ought to be achievable (the airport CEO thinks it is) but as several have pointed out it doesn't seem likely with the 2017 programme so far announced.

Cdg has always puzzled me with easyJet. They resist increasing their once daily service despite regularly selling out and even bmi regional's 2 x daily service (for the most part) isn't the answer. Bratislava always had very high load factors in the 90s% yet Ryanair axed it. They did the same with Riga yet took over Budapest when easyJet ceased to fly there a few years ago. I suppose it shows that high loads don't always translate into acceptable yields.

Wizz seems to have actually reduced slightly for next summer with Katowice only operating 3 x weekly for three months in peak summer. The rest of the summer is 2 x weekly. This year it was 3 x weekly all summer with load factors in the high 80s% in April and May but that doesn't seem to have been enough, or the yield wasn't. The main summer months saw LFs in the 90s%.

 

[Marko1]

I certainly agree with the lack of choice and frequency on some routes. For example cdg, bcn ,Fco should be operating at both higher frequency and with more than one airline. There is big gaps in the network with Scandinavia and Zurich missing plus the likes of several Greek islands. I cannot understand why easyJet or Ryanair are not flying to either or both of Rhodes and kos. As for Wizz they seem to have lost interest in brs with stagnant growth. Wow appears to be even less interested. Brexit has also played its part with easyJet, Ryanair and Wizz all scaling back uk growth as a result of the uncertainty