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Route Development

Discussion in 'Bristol' started by Aviador, Jan 2, 2011.

  1. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    No, not saying that at all. In a number of posts in recent months I and others have reported CEO Robert Sinclair's remarks in a magazine article in April that the airport will only add to existing airlines when it makes sense and won't overlay capacity on top of existing capacity merely for the sake of it. I can't remember any F4A member disagreeing with this sensible policy. When the strong rumours about a four-aircraft Jet2 base opening in summer 2018 were doing the rounds some of us were concerned that this would be too much too soon and would be likely to drive down yields.

    A couple of weeks ago I posted this suggestion in another BRS thread on F4A.

    I think that 2017 will finish around 8.2 million.

    If there is nothing further added or lost for next year I reckon that 2018 will be in the region of 8.5/8.6 million. I doubt that next year will see the outstanding growth of recent years enjoyed by many airports and that includes BRS.

    2019 and 2020 are obviously dependent upon not only how BRS progresses but also the wider situation with Brexit perhaps the major conundrum. If Brexit doesn't impact too negatively I'd be looking for 9 million, perhaps a bit more, in 2019 and edging up towards the current 10 mppa cap by the end of 2020.


    These figures are very similar to yours, Kingshat. I and others have also commented on the current 10 mppa planning limit with suggestions that informal talks with the council might already have taken place and that there might well be the sort of opposition that accompanied the major expansion applications, with possible threats of legal action, if (when really) a formal application to raise the current limit is submitted.

    The current discussion is not whether BRS should strive forward wildly but how, given the current situation with Monarch replacement around larger airports than BRS, the expected more moderate growth (compared with recent years) can be maintained in the next few years.

    I'm certainly realistic with the view that major additions in the form of new airlines are very unlikely in the current climate anyway. BRS is losing WOW and Wizz is axing/has axed three of its four routes.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017 at 11:58 AM
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  2. Marko1

    Marko1 Active Member

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    I certainly agree with those comments ly. To be honest I think we all expect similar figures over the next few years . I just personally think we need an extra dimension for choice at the airport and if that is jet2 then so be it. I cannot imagine the airport turning them away if they were approached by jet 2 as the possible consequence would be setting up at cwl instead with all the negative repercussions . We already lost Qatar on tenuous circumstances it would be a massive disappointment to lose anyone else simply because the airports 10 mill limit
     
  3. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member

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    I honestly couldn't see Jet2 setting up at CWL having much impact on BRS. They might draw off south gloucestershire and Bristol area but would they attract from the rest of BRS's catchment? If they did set up at CWL then i can't see it being more than 3 aircraft.
    In the long run Jet2 might actually be better off looking at the way TOM operates in the South West and South Wales area and base say 3 aircraft at BRS say 2 738s and a 757, 2 aircraft at CWL 1 738 and a 733 and 1 aircraft at EXT 1 733. It would give them then good coverage of the whole South West area as well as South and West Wales, all 3 airports would benefit from them in the area and instead of expanding by adding extra aircraft expand by adding bigger aircraft ie upgrade BRS to all 757 and CWL and EXT to all 738s.
    I personally think though that Jet2 won't be coming to this area for a while especially considering how well their BHX and STN bases have done plus with the expansion rumoured for STN you have to wonder where they will get the aircraft from.
     
  4. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    My concern, and Kingshat alluded to it, is that too much extra competition all at once is likely to drive down yields of existing carriers who might then themselves downsize at BRS leaving the airport no better off, except that it would have an additional airline.

    Even if the 10 mppa cap is lifted, and my own view is that it will be albeit there might be the usual fight with objectors, there is still always a danger that too much extra capacity in one go might be counter-productive. At BHX when Jet2 came along Norwegian and Vueling backed off to a degree. Whether that was because of Jet2 we don't know.

    A four-aircraft base (which was what was rumoured) at an airport of BRS's size seems a lot of additional seats to absorb in one go. Were Jet2 coming - I said earlier I think the possibility has receded at least in the short term - I would have thought a two-aircraft base would have a been a better fit to begin with, leaving the airline to grow as demand grew. I've been told though by someone with Jet2 connections that Jet2 would be unlikely to open a new base with just two aircraft.

    I do have a lot of faith in the BRS routes team and its leadership to do the right thing and they of course are in a far better position than I am to know what the right thing is.
     
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