Route Development & Rumours

[Jon Dempsey]

I don't think easyJet would have any intention of starting up a network from Birmingham at the moment.

In my opinion, their focus will be firmly set on picking up Gatwick slots, ex-Monarch, and then perhaps Manchester where they are firmly established and do not need to spend a king's ransom on advertising.

I would be more inclined to try and pick up "easy wins" to Birmingham from other bases, but Jet2 seem to be soaking these up quite quickly with BHX based metal.

Just an opinion

 

[Ray Finkle]

An update on the Brum X "Easyjet please come to BHX campaign"

Keep it going mate, I'll do my bit too.

Whether it will have any effect or not is debatable but there have been plenty of new routes where the press release has said 'due to customer demand from...' or 'this is where our customers told us that they want to fly to/from'.

 

[Ray Finkle]

Spicejet have scrapped plans to lease 787's for this winter citing costs as the reason. Birmingham was mentioned again as a future route if/when they get into long haul, it seems to be purely down to getting a good deal on 787's or A350's.

 

[thunderchild]

I don't want to sound like the voice of doom but I thought it would be interesting to look back a few years when BHX was enjoying a sudden and impressive surge of new airlines and destinations;

Aegean Airlines
American Airlines
Blue Air
Cobalt
Czech Airlines
Iberia Express
Icelandair
Norwegian Air Shuttle
Qatar Airways
VLM
Vueling
Wizz

All arrived on the scene (or announced they were coming) and in some cases added capacity, routes and frequencies pretty quickly. Sadly a few years on and things look quite different;

AA and VLM are gone, Norwegian look soon to be a thing of the past, Vueling will be down to just the one route they started with, Qatar dropped frequency, Wizz are cutting a route with no signs of adding anything new, Icelandair and Iberia appear to have stagnated, Cobalt dropping to just summer months, Aegean have cut short their season and even Blue Air might be showing one less route next summer.

On top of all that we have lost United, Emirates and Turkish have dropped frequency and while we have the success of Jet2 even that is overshadowed by the loss of Monarch.

It's no coincidence that the timing of all this coincides with the uncertainty of Brexit and I realise that many of these things (ie Monarch, Turkish) are beyond control but I really do wonder where BHX can go from here.

 

[Ray Finkle]

A couple of years ago I'd probably be all doom and gloom but I really think that much of it is beyond the airports control.

Aegean see full flights in the peak period but struggled in the couple of months either side. They could have quite easily cut the route altogether but have stuck with it.
American has been done so no point going over that again but lots of their JFK routes have now gone.
Blue Air haven't fully released S18 yet and Larnaca isn't on sale for LTN or LPL either.
Cobalt have been a little unfortunate in that they came in on a route that saw considerable expansion in a short space of time. Monarch increased frequency quite a bit, Blue Air came in and Jet2 start next summer. With next to no advertising they were always the weakest link.
Czech Airlines have consistently good load factors and have already increased to daily.
Iberia Express have held their own despite big competition from Monarch, Ryanair and briefly Norwegian.
Icelandair seem to be doing alright. They increase frequency at peak times then reduce it back down at others. We'll see the MAX next year which may make a difference.
Norwegian seem to be having UK short haul under review, even LGW. If it was just BHX that was being pulled I'd be worried but it's UK wide.
Qatar Airways were unfortunate victims of aircraft shortages and when they chop a frequency it's difficult to get it back. Again not only BHX that suffered.
VLM went bust.
Vueling see Norwegian.
Wizz have cut Sofia from all of the UK except Luton and even they see a frequency reduction. Other airports have also seen other routes cut so in some respects I guess we've come out of it quite well.

United was on borrowed time for a while and it seems Primera may have been the final nail in the coffin. A shame to lose them but it's good that the route won't be unserved for too long. Emirates have been such a success with the A380 that they wanted to put a second one in, unfortunately that meant that EK41/42 had to make way for it. It will be back.

I think it's very difficult to predict what will happen from here. Will Norwegian or Vueling have a rethink now Monarch have gone? With Jet2 expanding quickly we don't want the over capacity that we have seen this year on some routes. Ryanair have been eerily quiet, especially about Monarch, I guess they have their own issues at the moment. We are still to hear what Primera have in store.

You have to wonder if airlines are now holding back to see where the EU talks are heading. As said, Brexit has created uncertainty and one thing that business hates is uncertainty.

There's always Africaada to look forward to

 

[thunderchild]

Maybe I’m just being too glass half empty. Either way these sort of things don’t really matter when so people have lost their jobs.

#perspective

 

[58terminus]

I like Ray's summary.The forum can tend be a bit parochial and i admit i am no different having only a passing
interest in whats happening elsewhere.
As Ray points out other airports are having the same problems. If you only followed the BHX forum you might think
Monarch were an exclusive BHX operation.Other airports have also been hit by their demise.
Brexit might have an effect but it will worse for other airports one 70 miles down the M1 which has had massive increases recently.
Most of us would have seen that some routes were over capacity and that it would only ever have one result.
I still feel airport management have a duty to manage overcapacity problems because it causes problems
in the long term for short term gain.Two airlines then none.But i suppose if you can move onto another job
it does not really matter.
Oh and "Ryanair have been early quiet." We all know their current problems will have been forgotten in a short time.Are you thinking what i am Ray?

 

[Ray Finkle]

Just to add to the cheeriness the Tuesday Jet2 Pisa has been dropped, a second Faro has appeared but that may have been moved from a Monday. I reckon there will be more changes over the next few months so may do another review around Christmas time.

TUi are also up to their old, put a route on sale then cancel it a week later, tricks (I just don't know why they keep doing it). Venice has now gone from flight only with the holidays showing as 'all gone', also the Saturday Izmir is now on Thomas Cook! There is however a Monday Izmir showing as 'other carrier' with away based timings. I think most of the other changes still stand but again, it may be worth waiting until around Christmas time for a more settled schedule.

Oh and "Ryanair have been early quiet." We all know their current problems will have been forgotten in a short time.Are you thinking what i am Ray?

Quite possibly.

Expect the unexpected

 

[Ianbutty]

Blimey let's not all get down. As we have recently seen to 1900 people's cost this industry is incredibly susceptible to events way outside the control of BHX. This is at a time when new airlines from overseas are trying to establish a UK market do they have a foothold before 29th March 2019. Some won but many are losing. So we will see routes Come and go.

BHX is a rapidly expanding airport and if airlines cannot make it work they can and should move on. Why some airlines and routes do not work is down to many factors such as the brand, the service, competition, market saturation, pricing v costs etc. Throw in political uncertainty and, yes, including Brexit, and it all breeds a very cautious industry.

Monarch will be a massive wake up call. Ryanair likely to be less arrogant from now on, But more cautious and less ambitious - not a bad thing. Easyjet will look very carefully at Monarchs demise before jumping into a new base. Jet2 are ceasing the opportunity but they know the risk.

What i would like to see and Birmingham needs are more business to business growth - scandinavia, unserved major centres, Asia, North America even South America. Nice and steady with frequencies that establish good loads and onward connections.

The holiday trade is fine but if we lose frequency to some Med resorts but gain Oslo and Mumbai, for example, then I will be very happy indeed.

Keep positive.

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ianbutty, I fully agree with what you're saying, yes Monarch was a very big wake up call indeed to all airlines. Monarchs situation had been brewing for years and not months. It's main investment body Greybull Capital were not bothered about keeping the airline going, just waiting for someone to come along, sell onto them and make a huge profit. The administrators knew how long they would give to closing Monarch down and they succeed in doing it, but the only Losers in this are the hard loyal staff that have lost their jobs, the management at Monarch knew before, but did nothing, just picked up their alleged nice little payoffs instead, where the redundant staff get probably nothing, and have now probably signed on the unemployment.... AndyC

 

[Ianbutty]

Well said Andy. Cheers mate

 

[Ray Finkle]

I know what is said on social media can often be taken with a large pinch of salt but this is a reply about Valencia. Lets hope that there is some substance behind it and it's not just an off the cuff remark.

Hi, sadly since Monarch ceased operating this has become an unserved route but may be picked up by another airline. Thanks

 

[Jerry]

I know what is said on social media can often be taken with a large pinch of salt but this is a reply about Valencia. Lets hope that there is some substance behind it and it's not just an off the cuff remark.

Hi, sadly since Monarch ceased operating this has become an unserved route but may be picked up by another airline. Thanks

May be one for Flybe with their E jets.

 

[jfy1999]

On the LBA thread I believe there was a post about Ryanair potentially increasing frequencies on Eastern European routes (probably turning the screw on Wizz down at DSA). With Wizz on the retreat across the UK, I would be surprised if LBA was the only place to see RYR add flights.

I am pretty sure Ryanair could pick up BHX-VLC without making a dent in their passenger numbers from EMA. They operate several city routes at both MAN and LPL despite them being closer together than BHX and EMA.

 

[Ray Finkle]

I am pretty sure Ryanair could pick up BHX-VLC without making a dent in their passenger numbers from EMA.

That was my first thought.

 

[Kevin Farnell]

With Wizz on the retreat across the UK

I'm not so sure that Wizz are on the retreat across the UK. I believe that they have very recently set up Wizz UK, registered at Companies House. This may indicate a shift in operation, but retreat hmm?

Kevin

 

[IanFarquharson]

A couple of route announcements to come soon
Involving two airlines and should fill in a bit more of the gap left by Monarch
Should include more long haul

 

[andrew.clarkson]

Hi there Ian, how are you this late evening, are the above new routes you mentioned by any airline that we know of at all.... AndyC

 

[Ray Finkle]

.......and so it starts again

 

[thunderchild]

It better be Africaada, we’ve been waiting ages for this one!