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CAA Provisional Statistics Update

Discussion in 'Bristol' started by TheLocalYokel, Jan 15, 2009.

  1. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member I've upgraded to support F4A!

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    Well it doesn't seem to be effecting the load factor's for the flights though obviously we don't know the yields.
     
  2. Red Flyer

    Red Flyer Member

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    August figures published on BRS website today. Total of 894028 which is an increase of 47278 on last year.
     
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  3. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    A rise of 5.58% on August 2016. Given that the CAA figures have been around 9/10,000 more than BRS's own numbers each month so far this summer, there is every chance that August will be the first ever month that sees over 900,000 passengers.

    August 2016 saw over 856,000 in the CAA's numbers so a 5.5% increase on that would certainly take last month over 900,000. It was only in August 2014 that the airport first handled over 700,000 in a month.

    For the occasional reader to the BRS forum who might wonder why there is a discrepancy between the CAA stats and the airport's own figures each month (and the annual totals), it's because, for some inexplicable reason, BRS doesn't count certain types of passenger in its own figures - under 2s for example - but the CAA does.
     
  4. Sierra3

    Sierra3 Active Member

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    Could it be that the airport doesn't receive any of their passenger handling fees / charges on under 2's (or any duty free sales !)??
     
  5. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    The airport has never said, publicly at least, why there is a variation; they just say that there is and under2 s were once given as an example of a type of passenger not counted in the airport figures.

    For the past year or two the airport has carried this notice on the facts and figures section of its website:

    *Due to differences in the way some flights are recorded, Bristol Airport figures may contain small variances when compared to those reported by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

    10,000 fewer passengers a month (than the CAA's numbers) seem a bit more than a 'small variance'. It's particularly odd because the CAA gets its stats from the airport in the first place.

    Most airports like to 'boast' about their passenger figures when they are doing well. BRS for some reason plays its numbers down.

    Incidentally, the CAA monthly stats for July once again show Verona as nil despite there being two flights a week in summer and one in winter. Verona seems to be nil every month yet the annual CAA stats record a 12-month total.

    One of our members suggested this was because BRS has been using the wrong ICAO airport code. Verona VillaFranca is LIPX, but the airport has been using LIPN which is a tiny airfield called Verona Boscomantico.
     
  6. Marko1

    Marko1 Well-Known Member

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    August caa figures out. 905000 for the month and 8095000 for the rolling year . Fantastic
     
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  7. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    Indeed. 905,050 is the first time the airport has exceeded 900,000 in a calendar month and it's a rise of 5.7% on August 2016. Atms were up just 1.3%. Rolling 12-month figure of 8,095,866 is 10.9% up on a year ago.
     
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  8. Marko1

    Marko1 Well-Known Member

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    Sept figures released 830,000 up over 7%
     
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  9. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    Very good performance yet again. 7% on the CAA figures for September 2016 would put this September's figure around 839,000 giving a 12-month rolling total at the end of September in the region of 8.15 million.
     
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  10. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    Winter

    Airlines are about switch to their winter schedules which will make BRS a lot less busy again with Sundays a good example.

    In peak summer Sundays saw 108 daily arrivals; today sees 97; next Sunday the first of the winter season sees 78 which will undoubtedly drop further in mid winter.

    BRS's busiest month each year is August with 905,000 passengers this year and the least busy is January with 473,000 passengers this year.

    I expect the airport staff will always be pleased to have a breather.
     
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  11. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    October 2017

    Airport's own figures for October now published. 761,837 passengers handled in the month, up 7.36% on October 2016.

    Still awaiting the CAA figures for September - the airport's own figures for that month were 830,000, up over 7% on the previous September.

    When the CAA's figures are published for September and October a conservative estimate would put the rolling 12-month total around 8.19 million at the end of October.
     
  12. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    CAA BRS September stats published today at long last.

    841,865 passengers used the terminal in the month, up 7.4% on September 2016. Rolling 12-month total was 8,153,658, up 10.6% on 12 months ago.
     
  13. Marko1

    Marko1 Well-Known Member

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    There's some really good increases in figures for bmi regionals flights to Germany in September.
     
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  14. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    CAA Stats October 2017

    Published today and show that 769,858 passengers used the terminal, up 7.5% on October 2016. Atms were up 2.7%. Rolling 12-month total was 8,207,365, up 10.2% on a year ago.
     
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  15. Marko1

    Marko1 Well-Known Member

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    November figures released by airport - 483883 for month up 3.36%. Rolling year over 7.6 mill up 8.48%
     
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  16. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    A similar percentage rise in the CAA stats would take the monthly total to between 487,000 and 488,000 with the rolling year total around 8,220,000, perhaps a touch higher.
     
  17. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    2018

    As with shares past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but it might be of some value to look back at BRS over the past three years.

    In 2015 the airport handled 6.781 million passengers which was 448,000 more than in 2014, a rise of 7.1%.

    In 2016 the airport handled 7.604 million passengers which was 823,000 more than in 2015, a rise of 12.1%.

    2017 has handled around 8.220 million passengers in the 12 months to the end of November (CAA still to report on November but that is my estimate based on the airport's own figures for that month). I would have estimated the year-end total to have come in around 8.235 million, possibly a touch higher, but the recent difficulties might have cost the airport well over 10,000 passengers leaving December flat or nearly so.

    So for the purpose of this exercise I will assume that 2017 as a whole saw 8.220 million passengers which would be 616,000 more than in 2016, a rise of 8.1%.

    All this means that in the three years to the end of 2017 passenger numbers will have increased by 1.887 million, a rise of just under 30%.

    In 2018 there will be additional based units with easyJet, TUI and TCX. Against that Wizz will have almost disappeared (only Katowice left) and WOW isn't coming back.

    8.7 million might be a realistic figure for 2018. Based on my 2017 projection that would require an additional 480,000 passengers over 2017, a rise of about 5.8%. I might have slightly under-estimated 2017's figure, in which case 8.7 million could be achieved next year with a smaller passenger number rise and smaller percentage gain.

    In the past I've tended to under-estimate when projecting BRS passenger figures for the forthcoming year but I feel I might be more in line with reality this time. Of course, Brexit or the fear of it could play a part in the civil aviation scene in 2018.
     
  18. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    CAA stats for November now out. They show 488,572 passengers handled in the terminal, up 3.5% on November 2016. Atms were actually down 1.5% which makes the 3.5% gain more noteworthy. Rolling 12-month total was 8,223,959, up 9.5% on a year ago.

    BRS press release published today saying the annual passenger total was over 8.1 million

    Bristol Airport Reports Busiest Year
    Created: 12th Jan 2018

    Passenger numbers at the South West’s major airport exceed 8.1 million in 2017

    More than 8.1 million passengers used Bristol Airport last year, surpassing the total for 2016 by over six hundred thousand passengers*. The record annual number represents an 8 per cent increase year on year, and the eighth consecutive year of growth for England’s third largest regional airport.

    Both charter and scheduled airline sectors contributed to the rise with the number of direct routes served reaching over 125. Highlights in 2017 included TUI’s long haul programme operating the 787 Dreamliner aircraft from the Airport for the first time. easyJet added two new destinations to its route network to Stockholm and Athens, and Ryanair started a new service to Cologne. Other airlines such as Thomas Cook, bmi regional and KLM all saw an increase in passenger numbers in 2017.

    *Due to differences in the way some flights are recorded, Bristol Airport figures may contain small variances when compared to those reported by the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

    https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...and-media-centre/2018/1/passenger-record-2017

    Small variances!! Unless there was a massive drop in December the CAA will show over 8.2 million (already 8.223 million by the end of November in the CAA stats). That's at least 100,000 more passengers than BRS itself shows and it's like that every year.

    I've raised the subject more than once with senior BRS management, the last time at the master plan consultation road show before Christmas**, but I've yet to receive any reply that makes rational sense. The main absentee in the BRS figures seems to be under 2s which the CAA counts in its figures, but given that the CAA gets its figures from BRS in the first place the discrepancy between the two totals is hard to fathom.

    ** at the drop-in I suggested to a senior manager that most airports like to 'boast' as many passengers as they can yet BRS is just the opposite and has a policy of trying to play down its numbers. The reply was just a shrug of the shoulders.
     
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  19. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    Quiet January - again

    I popped into the terminal today (about 1430 hours) and it was almost like a ghost town: not surprising given the number of flights today.

    Although the winter months are a bit busier relative to the summer than they used to be the disparity is still substantial. In 2017 January (always the quietest month) saw 473,443 passengers and August (always the busiest month) saw 905,050 passengers.

    Today (excluding the BAE and Airbus shuttles and any one-off flights) there were 48 arrivals (same number of departures). This week the number of arrivals each day were/are: Mon 75; Tue 49; Wed 48; Thur 74; Fri 83; Sat 53; Sun 78 - excluding the shuttles, one-offs and positional flights.

    Given that the summer frequency can see up to 110 daily arrivals and a similar number of departures, mid-week in January is seeing less than half that number so no wonder things seemed quiet.
     
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  20. Marko1

    Marko1 Well-Known Member

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    I wonder how the airport could boost numbers during the winter . It is a significant drop compared to the summer. When we passed through in November it was very quiet .
     

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