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Route Development & Rumours

Discussion in 'Manchester' started by User0001, Aug 7, 2013.

  1. Borneobob

    Borneobob Member

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    I agree with all the points you make Egcc about the Pisa/Florence route, and market from Manchester, but isn't this also true for all the other UK airports..(BHX,BRS,LGW,STN,LCY,LHR and maybe even LTN)
    I'm sure MAN could easily support a dedicated flight. What do you think?
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2017
  2. EGCC_MAN

    EGCC_MAN Well-Known Member

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    I guess what really matters is the combined market demand for PSA/FLR from MAN compared to the capacity provided by the carrier(s) involved. Between them Jet2 and EasyJet are operating 8 return flights per week this Summer on MAN-PSA. For a destination which is more citybreak / specialist than mass-market resort that seems quite a generous provision, though obviously that is speculation on my part as I don't have access to sales and yield data. But Italy alone offers a number of competing short-break options including Venice, Rome, Milan / Verona (Italian Lakes), Bologna and Napoli (for the Neopolitan Riviera). So is there space in the market for Florence to muscle in against Pisa as well without trashing yields or inciting a corresponding capacity cut at PSA? We can only guess ...
     
  3. Dobbo

    Dobbo Platinum Member

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    Do DL have a long haul base at LAS? If not, VS via MAN might be a realistic option if there is no desire for AF or KL to fly to LAS from their respective hubs. As User noted, VS already fly to LAS from MAN. This would be an alternative to flying one stop at a DL hub in the US.

    I can't see this in the short term. South America is more a TCX portfolio. If SFO and BOS are a success, VS might look at more North American routes, but I can't see much more than that in the foreseeable.
     
  4. ethanegcc

    ethanegcc Platinum Member

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    Delta has not got a long haul US base in Las Vegas (although they are temporarily flying LH from there for CES 2018). AF don't have the right aircraft to launch or the network (MCO - not too dissimilar a market failed spectacularly). And whilst DL could launch more flights from focus cities, presently feeding through Virgin in MAN is a good idea in my view.
     
  5. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member

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    HOP! are restruvrcrd
    DL don't have a long haul base at LAS but neither do they have one at Indianapolis and they've just launched IND-CDG. DL can just easily rotate a wide body via AMS or through somewhere like ATL or JFK domestically. I honestly don't see the attraction for DL to send pax to AMS via MAN when they have such a large domestic network and lots of hubs to choose from.
     
  6. EGCC_MAN

    EGCC_MAN Well-Known Member

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    I have just completed a brief survey of destinations which are served by passenger flights from neighbouring airports but not from MAN itself. I thought the list might be of some interest re route development and potential gaps in the network.

    BHX - 16: Vilnius / Perpignan / Biarritz / Bordeaux / Paris Orly / Comiso / Florence / Bucharest / Cluj-Napoca / Graz / Katowice / Poznan / Bydgoszcz / Warsaw-Chopin / Delhi / Ashgabat

    LPL - 14: City of Derry / Nimes / Bari / Craiova / Bucharest / Bacau / Cluj-Napoca / Szczecin / Warsaw-Chopin / Poznan / Katowice / Lublin / Vilnius / Bordeaux

    DSA - 7: Poznan / Katowice / Warsaw-Chopin / Lublin / Vilnius / Cluj-Napoca / Bucharest

    EMA - 2: Dinard / Lodz

    LBA - 2: Montpellier / Vilnius

    NCL - 2: Cardiff / Bristol

    HUY and MME have flights to each other, but these do not appear to be bookable. So HUY - 0, MME - 0.

    Looks like we need to pack the MAG route development team off to schmooze Ryanair, Blue Air and Wizz Air again! Weak links are the usual suspects Poland, Romania, Lithuania and some Regional France. Obviously, some missing destinations are affected by extenuating factors such as service to nearby airports (Warsaw Modlin, Paris CDG, Pisa). And the two outliers served from NCL (CWL and BRS) represent a more challenging journey from there than from Manchester area.

    Interesting to note that Bordeaux is absent again.

    Any corrections and observations welcome.
     
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  7. User001

    User001 Platinum Member

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    I think considering the regional coverage in France, Bordeaux seems the biggest point missing in that list.

    Short haul wise, Bucharest is the other big one, with both Ryanair and TAROM as potential candidates.

    Delhi for Manchester is a case of when, and not if. With Scoot around the corner (despite protests coming from some), I believe that India is going to be one of those areas that once one starts, we will open the metaphorical floodgates.
     
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  8. ethanegcc

    ethanegcc Platinum Member

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    Massive Regional Connections I'd love to see served:
    Bordeaux (Flybe)
    Bucharest (RYR/Tarom)
    Warsaw Chopin (LOT) -
    unfortunately, unlikely. I know lots of people who travel to LPL to use Wizz to Warsaw, instead of Ryanair from MAN purely for convenience. If only we could turn back time and divert Wizz to MAN instead of LBA and DSA!

    Vilnius/Poznan/Bydgoszcz could be very easily served by Ryanair (only obstacle is RYR serve Vilnius from LBA) in my opinion. Dinard is also a good candidate that would do well. Paris Orly would be nice with HOP!.

    India is the watch word at the moment.
     
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  9. Dobbo

    Dobbo Platinum Member

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    A couple of interesting points have emerged today, that I feel are noteworthy in the context of MAN.

    Firstly, UA seems to be redeploying some of its B752s, which includes a new seasonal IAD-EDI. In the summer, UA will now operate 3 flights a day to EDI (EWR, ORD, IAD) [EDITED]. EDI is a much smaller market than MAN, so why the discrepancy? In no particular order: Scotland is soon to dispose of APD; MAN has more competing options; EDI serves a capital and financial centre; and EDI serves a larger inbound market (certainly from the US side).

    Secondly, CX have suspended DUS from March next year. I raise this because of the comparisons we made between MAN and DUS a few months ago. I don't think this signifies MAN being at risk, more likely to go the other way and expand further, but the explosion of far east carriers at DUS in the last couple of years (including ANA and SQ) makes you wonder whether DUS is sustainable in competition with FRA, AMS and BRU. In particular following the problems experienced by Air Berlin. I wonder if we could see a redeployment of this capacity moving forward.

    Both provide food for thought.

    [EDIT - UA are to operate to EWR-EDI daily only. I wonder if EWR may be up-gauged, otherwise its just a redeployment of capacity]
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2017
  10. EGCC_MAN

    EGCC_MAN Well-Known Member

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    It would be tempting to conclude that there isn't much Manchester Airport news around at the moment but that would be to miss the point. What we're seeing is key carriers including Ryanair and EasyJet launching generally "as you were" flying programmes for Summer '18 season. They could add to what they've placed on sale later, but will they? Has anybody had a chance to do Monarch and Jet2 S17/S18 comparisons yet? In a season which sees significant cutbacks from Vueling, Norwegian and American Airlines MAN could be facing a challenge in terms of 2018 growth trajectory.

    Air Arabia Maroc, Air Malta, Powdair (maybe) and Tunis Air are set to join the fray, but they will barely offset Vueling alone. Thomas Cook's new Seattle schedule is a straight swap for Miami. A little more from Icelandair, RAM and the Loganair /FlyBe bunfight till common sense prevails.

    At the moment I'm inclined to think anaemic growth for 2018 rather than an absolute fall, but it's too early to draw conclusions beyond speculation. Of course, if we can match 2017 figures that would be a decent result anyway. My hunch is that Winter '17/'18 will return better growth percentages than the Summer months to follow.

    Other points of view very welcome. Discuss?
     
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  11. User001

    User001 Platinum Member

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    Easyjet and Ryanair are waiting to see the fallout from Alitalia and Air Berlin, as it means there could be some short term needs for capacity in those markets should the carriers go under, and this means growth across the network is on hold.

    It's worth pointing out that there is no need for doom and gloom at this stage, I have not seen those 2 airlines add new routes at the time of their initial season release for some time, it normally follows later.

    Jet2 will see an increase, and Minarch are currently mid sort out for some big news it seems.

    I suppose we are 'lucky' in that by pure luck, Manchester sees a daily BCN when other airport are seeing less than daily. This make MAN their 4th largest airport after LGW/CWL/LTN.

    We should see some extra flights from BA all going well, and I have it on good authority we should start seeing some other routes news (good) trickling through very soon. May even see an new airline or 2!
     
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  12. Dobbo

    Dobbo Platinum Member

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    I'm fascinated by what Monarch are up to. I wonder whether that brand will exist following whatever it is they have planned. If a return to long haul is planned, I wonder the extent to which any route network would duplicate the TCX and Thomson networks. Canada appears to be an opportunity, with certain Caribbean and Far East Asia routes also seeming attractive targets. Perhaps they could also beat TCX to CPT?

    Looking at the big picture, and given the current uncertainty, a holding pattern in 2018 would be okay. Since 2014, MAN has added a lot, and a return to the recent trend in 2019 would be good.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2017
  13. jfy1999

    jfy1999 Platinum Member

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    Over on PPRuNe there is talk of United upgrading to a 787?
     
  14. ethanegcc

    ethanegcc Platinum Member

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    It certainly would be nice! Let's hope!

    I've looked through the timetables and noticed the flight is 5 minutes quicker from 23rd May - sometimes airlines make the flight slightly quicker if it's operating with 787s.
     
  15. hammerb32

    hammerb32 Member

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    Recently flew on the early UA 757 to IAD from LHR, during conversation with the flight crew it was mentioned that the 757 would not be on the MAN flight for much longer.
     
  16. ethanegcc

    ethanegcc Platinum Member

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    There was also the change in the GDS showing '767' from a similar point in May.
     
  17. Dobbo

    Dobbo Platinum Member

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    Trying to strike a positive note in light of the slow moving disaster that appears to be Monarch.

    TATL is perhaps not the bloodbath we suspected. Seems like VS are reasonably pleased with their performance this summer, there is the UA story above aaaand there is speculation on another forum that CLT might return to MAN via AA.

    This was an ex US route which, per one poster, failed because the 757 was unable to carry a full cargo and passenger load. Likely seasonal, but if anything came to pass it would be an interesting change of tact by AA following the JFK withdrawal.

    Not sure what aircraft are based at CLT, but hopefully they won't have the same issues as experienced at ORD!
     
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  18. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member

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    CLT is a mostly hub traffic as far as l know so there isn't going to be much point 2 point on that route. I know recently my cousin used it from LHR with AA to get to Orlando but MAN has that well covered. If they do open up CLT then they must believe there will be enough onward connecting traffic to sustain it.
     
  19. EGCC_MAN

    EGCC_MAN Well-Known Member

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    In the aftermath of the tragic collapse of Monarch Airlines, Manchester Airport and the airlines serving it face a number of crucial decisions going forward. Minds will have been exercised in airline and airport boardrooms across the country (and beyond) as strategic plans are put into action in response to this crisis.

    Of course, the business world is ruthless and unforgiving. Crisis for one company spells major opportunity for others. Court Line, Intasun / Air Europe, Globespan, XL Group, BMI Baby ... the demise of all these brands spelt heartbreak for their employees but a chance for surviving companies to grow and prosper in the vacuum left behind. Now it is Monarch's turn to exit the stage and make way for the next generation of success.

    So, what does all this mean from a Manchester Airport perspective? Monarch's based fleet consisted of 7 x A321 and 2 x A320. All nine aircraft flew intensively, and generally with high load factors. So at face value, Manchester ideally needs to replace nine based units and around 1.5 million passengers per year. How realistic is this? On the plus side, Monarch had very few unduplicated MAN routes. Zagreb and Verona spring to mind ... both my recent Zagreb flights were packed, so maybe an opportunity for someone like EasyJet there? And Verona ... Lake Garda will never go out of fashion.

    Well, first we have to acknowledge some really tough home truths. There is a very good reason why Monarch Airlines failed. Angry people will call out management failings and Greybull Capital, but the reality is that Monarch had become a business which couldn't limp on without regular infusions of fresh cash to burn. It's been rinse and repeat for years now. Monarch had become a "me too" player in the UK short-haul leisure market, a battleground littered with overcapacity and uneconomic yields. Many of Monarch's competitors enjoyed advantages which they didn't share: lower operating costs, more diverse networks, less exposure to the Med. Monarch had little room to manoeuvre into new markets and no pricing power to charge economic fares on it's core routes. Every option open to them meant bleeding more red ink. This sad ending had become inevitable. If anything, the biggest surprise is that Greybull put up more money at ATOL-renewal time twelve months ago. The truth is we had a bonus year out of Monarch Airlines. And Greybull - to their credit - threw alot of money into providing that lifeline. They tried to put a viable deal together during that reprieve year. But it just proved too big an ask.

    Meanwhile, both Norwegian International and Vueling Airlines muscled into these same crowded markets from MAN. And around a year later promptly withdrew again. That is very telling about the state of the market. These two couldn't make Manchester to the Med resorts work either. The margins aren't there. Vueling has now retrenched to its daily service between MAN and its hub at BCN. Norwegian is back on the Scandinavian routes. Monarch tell us that in 2017 they flew 14% more passengers but took £100m less in fares. Losses were estimated at £60m for 2017, with projections showing that the loss would rise to £100m in 2018. The show couldn't go on.

    In the light of the above, one thing is very clear. The market from Manchester to the Med resorts is likely to support significantly fewer seats going forward. Yes, we can point to high load factors, but it is yield which really matters. The question now is where is the equilibrium between two key numbers: total 2017 Manchester short-haul leisure capacity, and that number minus the programmes of Monarch, Norwegian and Vueling. I don't expect to see all of that shortfall made good, but hopefully some of it can be.

    Who are the key players left behind in this market segment? I would say principally Jet2.com, EasyJet, Ryanair, Thomas Cook, TUI UK (Thomson). And there is a case for including IAG as well. But how much will each contribute to filling the void ... it is in nobody's interests to swamp the market again. Higher fares will be the goal.

    Unfortunately, the answer isn't a simple one. There are complicating factors beyond the obvious which will restrict the response of some of these carriers. Yes, attractive slots and overnight aircraft parking positions have just come free at MAN. So run in there and make your land-grab, right? But it isn't so straightforward. Similar slots have just come free at LGW (big draw!), LTN and BHX. But for companies like EasyJet, Ryanair and IAG these are not the only selection boxes which have suddenly been flung open. They must also consider Dusseldorf and Berlin Tegel (Air Berlin legacy), Roma Fiumicino and Milano Linate (Alitalia). Bagging those slots is really attractive too. With GBP/EUR exchange rates, those continental slots could be seen as a better short-term bet by some. And unfortunately, carriers can't just magic up more aeroplanes to fill these slots. They have a finite pool and must disperse their fleets wisely.

    But perhaps it is Manchester Airport itself which throws up the biggest roadblock of all. Monarch Airlines operated out of Terminal 2. And that is where the new vacancies have arisen. Now that is a major headache for most. The exception is TUI Airlines UK (Thomson). Should they opt to add a frame or two at MAN they're well placed to do so. It should be no problem for them as a T2 incumbent. But TUI is a notoriously cautious company anyway ... we'd probably see only very modest expansion from them, and they (TUI) are also amongst the best placed to soak up former Air Berlin opportunities in their native Germany. Our other likely players are Ryanair in T3, and EasyJet, Jet2.com and Thomas Cook over in T1. And therein lies a huge problem.

    Ryanair loves it's T3 home at MAN. Even though they're bulked out at nine based aircraft. They can't just add frames at T3, and it seems inconceivable that they'd go for a split-terminal operation. They could very easily be physically unable to grow at MAN. And in that case the news could get worse for MAN: their route to expanding on core leisure routes such as AGP, PMI, ALC, FAO etc. could be to swap out more niche routes to other airports such as LPL, LBA and EMA. MAG's enduring failure to address the Ryanair T3 squeeze really risks coming back to bite here.

    Over at T1 the picture isn't much better. EasyJet, Jet2 and Thomas Cook go a long way to bulking out that terminal as well. They can't just add unlimited frames even if they wanted to. In an ideal world, MAG would persuade one of these 'Big 3' to switch across to T2. But who will be up for that? Especially during the earliest phases of TP disruption. Would any of them consider a short-term split-terminal operation until 'TP Pier 1' is completed? Thomas Cook appears out of the question ... they need T1's widebody stands. An EasyJet switch would be physically doable, but I'm not sure that the airline would perceive any advantage to them in this. Pier B stands suit their needs well. Jet2 enjoys almost bespoke facilities in T1 with their own check-in and security hall. But their extensive use of remote parking makes them the best possibility of accepting some kind of short-term flexible arrangement using bussing etc. And my guess is that Jet 2, probably the most directly advantaged by Monarch's sad plight, would be the company most likely to expand capacity. They also don't have the distraction of managing bases in Germany and Italy etc.

    So, as we see, issues such as distribution of carriers by terminal will also have a major role to play in the recovery at MAN. Other wildcards could include the response from IAG. They have been looking to expand the niche CityFlyer E190 programme. And we shouldn't absolutely rule out the possibility of the Vueling brand trying again, although they may not be keen after a difficult 2017 season in the Manchester short-haul leisure bunfight. However, the one glimmer of hope here is that an entrant such as Vueling (or even Norwegian) could be told you get the slots and the overnight parking positions if you're prepared to switch to T2.

    There will be lots more to wrap our heads around as all this unfolds. But consider some other silver linings (from the point of view of the competition). Thomas Cook and Virgin have just sidestepped the planned advent of a new no-frills North Atlantic challenger in Monarch Mk2. They must be privately jubilant. But the loudest cheers must surely be coming from Primera Air who have seemingly dodged a bullet (or a cannonball?) at BHX.

    Meanwhile, the one bit of good news which we do have is that Monarch Airlines Engineering Limited (MAEL) survives. A high quality operation accounting for many skilled jobs. They shouldn't be a difficult asset to sell. Good luck to all involved with them going forward.

    Observations and discussions welcome.
     
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  20. Aviador

    Aviador Administrator Staff Member I've upgraded to support F4A!

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    Thank you for giving us such an in depth insight into the future likelihood of airline expansion to take-up some of the void left by Monarch. Certainly interesting times ahead.
     
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