Longhaul from Bristol

[TheLocalYokel]

I think everyone is getting very negative about the chance of an meb3 route , we need a more positive 'Les Wilson' attitude here !
The Bristol management should be ( and proably are ) on the phone to Etihad stright away and selling Bristol ! saying they think Qatar have made a mistake and we know Bristol can put far more bums on seats than Cardiff and far more premium bums on seats ! and here is the evidence , which we all know is true ! you have the right aircraft (b.787-9 ) and have an oppurtunity here to wipe the floor with your major competitor .
Although the Qatar service is great news for Cardiff and Wales in general it really makes no difference to the millions to the South and West of Bristol still having to travel to Heathrow to access an meb3 route .Heathrow being quicker to get to ,more frequent in connections and almost certainly cheaper than Cardiff

Dear old Les. You are right about his 'can do' attitude.

What would he make of BRS now? Even his almost overpowering enthusiasm for the place could not have envisaged 8 million people using 'his' airport. I'm sure he'd have had something to say publicly about Qatar's decision too, and it would have been a pithy response.

I suppose there is sometimes a fine line between negativity and being realistic. I think that we are still at the stage where some people think that if BRS could not attract Qatar (the one airline almost purpose built for BRS to connect to the ME) how the heck can they hope to entice one of the other big ME carriers?

I do know that the BRS routes team is one of the best in the business so they won't give up. The head man arguably knows more about the civil aviation market in the South West than anyone. He's been at it at BRS long enough, man and boy - literally; and not much in South Wales escapes him either.

Addendum

In 2008 BRS gave evidence to the Competition Commission regarding a BAA Airports Investigation. The minutes were published and I downloaded them and have retained them. There is quite a lot in there that I'm surprised was put into the public domain.

When it came to how BRS sold itself, this was what was said by the BRS representative, presumably the CEO of the time, although the person is not identified.

If my sales director, marketing director were here today and you said, “What are you selling?”, he would say, “I am selling Bristol”. Not the airport. I am selling the community of Bristol and the greater Bristol community as well and the opportunity for an airline to serve that community is the thing that we are selling.

So when, for example, we brought Lufthansa across or indeed Continental under Project USA, we got the local community into a local hotel and they sold the catchment area to the principals of Lufthansa and Continental alongside us. They said, “These are the reasons why you should be here”, and of course we backed that with the evidence of the number of trips being made by businesses in the southwest via other hubs and it is a very powerful marketing tool to get other people selling your airport. We never ever sold the airport facilities in themselves.

In fact, if you looked at the airport’s facilities at Bristol, with its very short runway of 2011 metres, most airlines would probably cross it off their list because it is a too short runway but actually the compelling argument is it is a great market opportunity and fortunately with both Lufthansa and Continental they have the right equipment that can use the runway.

 

[andrewgreen]

Dear old Les. You are right about his 'can do' attitude.

What would he make of BRS now? Even his almost overpowering enthusiasm for the place could not have envisaged 8 million people using 'his' airport. I'm sure he'd have had something to say publicly about Qatar's decision too, and it would have been a pithy response.

I suppose there is sometimes a fine line between negativity and being realistic. I think that we are still at the stage where some people think that if BRS could not attract Qatar (the one airline almost purpose built for BRS to connect to the ME) how the heck can they hope to entice one of the other big ME carriers?

I do know that the BRS routes team is one of the best in the business so they won't give up. The head man arguably knows more about the civil aviation market in the South West than anyone. He's been at it at BRS long enough, man and boy - literally; and not much in South Wales escapes him either.

Addendum

In 2008 BRS gave evidence to the Competition Commission regarding a BAA Airports Investigation. The minutes were published and I downloaded them and have retained them. There is quite a lot in there that I'm surprised was put into the public domain.

When it came to how BRS sold itself, this was what was said by the BRS representative, presumably the CEO of the time, although the person is not identified.

If my sales director, marketing director were here today and you said, “What are you selling?”, he would say, “I am selling Bristol”. Not the airport. I am selling the community of Bristol and the greater Bristol community as well and the opportunity for an airline to serve that community is the thing that we are selling.

So when, for example, we brought Lufthansa across or indeed Continental under Project USA, we got the local community into a local hotel and they sold the catchment area to the principals of Lufthansa and Continental alongside us. They said, “These are the reasons why you should be here”, and of course we backed that with the evidence of the number of trips being made by businesses in the southwest via other hubs and it is a very powerful marketing tool to get other people selling your airport. We never ever sold the airport facilities in themselves.

In fact, if you looked at the airport’s facilities at Bristol, with its very short runway of 2011 metres, most airlines would probably cross it off their list because it is a too short runway but actually the compelling argument is it is a great market opportunity and fortunately with both Lufthansa and Continental they have the right equipment that can use the runway.

Yes its a shame he's not still about, his reply would have been interesting im sure
All the talk about turning attention to more code shares to european hubs which will add an extra flight if your planning to fly long distance to the East is just defeatist and picking up crumbs.
The main thrust should still be to get decent long haul connections both East and West

 

[Jerry]

The Bristol management should be ( and proably are ) on the phone to Etihad stright away and selling Bristol ! saying they think Qatar have made a mistake and we know Bristol can put far more bums on seats than Cardiff and far more premium bums on seats ! and here is the evidence , which we all know is true !

Etihad may come to the same conclusion and choose Cardiff. Qatar would have weighed a lot of pros and cons choosing between Cardiff and Bristol. Cargo would've been a factor as for long haul scheduled services it helps increase the revenue earned by the aircraft. The runway would've been a factor as yes the 787 8 can take off and even the A330 200 but what if for operational reasons they needed to deploy anything bigger? An example of needing a bigger aircraft would be during November when Wales play Australia in the autumn internationals and the Aussie fans come over there would be increased demand to Wales and at CWL Qatar could increase to an A340 or 777 if they wished. They wouldn't have had that choice at BRS but do at CWL. Yes BRS is a more evolved airport, it's larger and busier and technically sits in a richer catchment area but CWL can access that area and draw from it, they already do to a small degree.
If Qatar felt they couldn't fill the aircraft and put bums on seats at CWL then they wouldn't be launching the flights. Also the 22 (hopefully) business seats on each flight won't need to be filled up just by Welsh and West country pax but will attract people from the Far East, Australia, the Middle East and Africa same with the economy seats.
When Qatar put the flights on sale they won't just be advertising as just a city they'll be connecting to a country. Wales has a much higher worldwide profile than Bristol due to regular rugby events, the football teams exploits at the Euro's, the Champions League final and Swansea (fingers crossed) still being a Premier League team next and other big events.
Qatar will be giving a big part of the world better access to a nation and it's culture and history and the beauty of it's landscape and lets not forget it's trade.

 

[andrewgreen]

Etihad may come to the same conclusion and choose Cardiff. Qatar would have weighed a lot of pros and cons choosing between Cardiff and Bristol. Cargo would've been a factor as for long haul scheduled services it helps increase the revenue earned by the aircraft. The runway would've been a factor as yes the 787 8 can take off and even the A330 200 but what if for operational reasons they needed to deploy anything bigger? An example of needing a bigger aircraft would be during November when Wales play Australia in the autumn internationals and the Aussie fans come over there would be increased demand to Wales and at CWL Qatar could increase to an A340 or 777 if they wished. They wouldn't have had that choice at BRS but do at CWL. Yes BRS is a more evolved airport, it's larger and busier and technically sits in a richer catchment area but CWL can access that area and draw from it, they already do to a small degree.
If Qatar felt they couldn't fill the aircraft and put bums on seats at CWL then they wouldn't be launching the flights. Also the 22 (hopefully) business seats on each flight won't need to be filled up just by Welsh and West country pax but will attract people from the Far East, Australia, the Middle East and Africa same with the economy seats.
When Qatar put the flights on sale they won't just be advertising as just a city they'll be connecting to a country. Wales has a much higher worldwide profile than Bristol due to regular rugby events, the football teams exploits at the Euro's, the Champions League final and Swansea (fingers crossed) still being a Premier League team next and other big events.
Qatar will be giving a big part of the world better access to a nation and it's culture and history and the beauty of it's landscape and lets not forget it's trade.

Indeed they may but can you see Qatar and Etihad fighting it out at Cardiff ? I dont think there would be enough business for both of them . However if Etihad pitched up at Bristol it would certainly give some competition and the whole severnside area would benefit from lower fares.
The catchment to the South and West of Bristol would be inclined to use it instead of Heathrow but not necessarily at the expense of Cardiff

 

[Sierra3]

Etihad may come to the same conclusion and choose Cardiff. Qatar would have weighed a lot of pros and cons choosing between Cardiff and Bristol. Cargo would've been a factor as for long haul scheduled services it helps increase the revenue earned by the aircraft. The runway would've been a factor as yes the 787 8 can take off and even the A330 200 but what if for operational reasons they needed to deploy anything bigger? An example of needing a bigger aircraft would be during November when Wales play Australia in the autumn internationals and the Aussie fans come over there would be increased demand to Wales and at CWL Qatar could increase to an A340 or 777 if they wished. They wouldn't have had that choice at BRS but do at CWL. Yes BRS is a more evolved airport, it's larger and busier and technically sits in a richer catchment area but CWL can access that area and draw from it, they already do to a small degree.
If Qatar felt they couldn't fill the aircraft and put bums on seats at CWL then they wouldn't be launching the flights. Also the 22 (hopefully) business seats on each flight won't need to be filled up just by Welsh and West country pax but will attract people from the Far East, Australia, the Middle East and Africa same with the economy seats.
When Qatar put the flights on sale they won't just be advertising as just a city they'll be connecting to a country. Wales has a much higher worldwide profile than Bristol due to regular rugby events, the football teams exploits at the Euro's, the Champions League final and Swansea (fingers crossed) still being a Premier League team next and other big events.
Qatar will be giving a big part of the world better access to a nation and it's culture and history and the beauty of it's landscape and lets not forget it's trade.

Very much agree on the 2 way pax point, possibly the cargo & the rugby internationals, but the rest is like saying there's superior 'draw' in Wales (as a Country) to the West 'Country'; here I disagree. As for trade - hard to quantify, but as Bristol is economically thriving at the moment, would have thought BRS would be a trade bigger magnet.

Maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree!

On another note there was a technical question on another (US / Canadian) aviation website by a 'Jerry123' asking if B789, A359 & A332 could make the Middle East out of BRS, its worth reading if you haven't already! It seems the answer was yes!

 

[Jerry]

Indeed they may but can you see Qatar and Etihad fighting it out at Cardiff ? I dont think there would be enough business for both of them . However if Etihad pitched up at Bristol it would certainly give some competition and the whole severnside area would benefit from lower fares.
The catchment to the South and West of Bristol would be inclined to use it instead of Heathrow but not necessarily at the expense of Cardiff

Honestly I can't see Etihad turning up at either not with a Qatar service at CWL. They don't even fly to BHX.
And Cardiff Airport is closer to places like Taunton and Exeter than Heathrow so people may choose to use the CWL service.

 

[Jerry]

Very much agree on the 2 way pax point, possibly the cargo & the rugby internationals, but the rest is like saying there's superior 'draw' in Wales (as a Country) to the West 'Country'; here I disagree. As for trade - hard to quantify, but as Bristol is economically thriving at the moment, would have thought BRS would be a trade bigger magnet.

Maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree!

On another note there was a technical question on another (US / Canadian) aviation website by a 'Jerry123' asking if B789, A359 & A332 could make the Middle East out of BRS, its worth reading if you haven't already! It seems the answer was yes!

I know about that as it was me that posted it. And I did say the aircraft could make it.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Something obviously prompted Qatar to choose CWL, possibly several factors, but I doubt that we shall ever know for certain what they were.

I read somewhere recently that one reason might have been the economic growth and potential of the Cardiff city region, but that would apply to the Bristol city region too and more so as this article shows (see link at bottom). It also shows that Cardiff does beat Bristol into a cocked hat in one aspect: its sporting profile and facilities.

My own view for what it's worth is that the Welsh Government's backing was crucial. The WG is in a position to facilitate all sorts of trade agreements/partnerships between Qatar and Wales, with the councils in the West of England and the forthcoming West of England Metro region mayor having very little impact when it comes to promoting similar initiatives for the West Country - they haven't got the WG's budget for starters.

This is a fact of life and it's no good anyone becoming precious or indignant. It's frustrating for people in the West Country because Bristol gets very little support from the Westminster government as it (the Labour government was no different) regards Bristol and its region as too self-sufficient to need help so it has largely to fend for itself.

Historically Bristol continually re-invents itself, which is quite a feat as for many decades it's been poorly served by its elected councillors (of all political colours). One hundred years ago it was a thriving port with major industries in tobacco and aircraft and bus building. Importantly it also boasted a myriad of small, light industries which diversity served it well in the Great Depression of the 1930s when people from all over the UK flocked to the city for jobs. Many of their ancestors still live in the area.

By the end of 20th Century the city had lost its tobacco trade and the city docks had closed. The city's economic strength is now based on such things as aerospace, IT, media, financial services, legal services and increasingly tourism. Its location means that distribution centres feature prominently and the docks at Avonmouth and Royal Portbury are now thriving and an important asset again (after being allowed to run down when in local authority ownership - they are now on a very long lease to the private sector; BRS mirrors the docks rise and fall to a degree with public then private ownership having a similar effect ).

Bristol's economic strength allowed it to weather the major recession of the 'noughties' better than many cities and the airport benefited from this. Bristol regularly tops the Core Cities tables on all sorts of important indicators on a per capita basis.

So, understandably as it serves a capital city, CWL will enjoy some pre-eminence but it has to be worked for. The Welsh Government is now taking this on board after the previous ownership going back many years seemed to believe that the status of Cardiff would see airlines using its airport because of that and with little effort needed to get them in.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/how-rival-cities-cardiff-bristol-10864640

 

[Jerry]

It may be that in the long run that for BRS to attract/have a better chance of attracting a widebodied service it may well have to look at how it could develop a cargo operation for any airline that turns up to give them the ability to access the Bristol economy.
The Welsh Government was no doubt an advantage. I believe they have a trade mission in Dubai that was heavily involved in this. I don't know if Bristol/West country has any similar. Plus the First Minister as well does visits to other countries. Their was a US trip last year and he was in Norway in January so hopefully something will come out of those trips. I'm wondering if the Mayor of Bristol does anything similar?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Bristol has a Brussels Office which will apparently remain after Brexit. Beyond that there is no money. The city council has to make tens of millions of pounds in savings thanks to government austerity cuts and up to 1,000 council jobs have gone/will go.

Although the city's economy is deemed vibrant - former PM Cameron said last year that the city is the second wealthiest in the UK after London (not sure how he worked that out, probably GVA/GDP per capita, but others have said the same thing before him) - it gets little support from central government. Bristol is one of the few cities that gets back less of its business rates revenue than it puts into the government's pot. The excess goes to other areas deemed needy.

Bristol is a Gamma city in the rankings of the Globalization and World Rankings Research Institute which is considered the leading institute ranking world cities. Economic factors are considered more important than cultural or political ones in these rankings, albeit the list hasn't been updated for a few years. So in that sense the city is on the radar.

Cities are divided into Alpha, Beta and Gamma rankings with sub divisions of + and - in each category. There are eight UK cities in the list:

Alpha ++ (the highest ranking) London, with New York being the only other city in this ranking
Beta Manchester
Beta - Edinburgh and Birmingham
Gamma + Bristol
Gamma Glasgow, Leeds and Belfast

http://www.spottedbylocals.com/blog/alpha-beta-and-gamma-cities/

BRS used to have a cargo facility but it was moved to Avonmouth many years ago and then closed. Because the airport is surrounded by Green Belt warehousing etc is really a non-starter. I'm not convinced that a lack of cargo facilities would be a deal breaker.

Unfortunately the CAA has discontinued its Summary of Activity tables and the last one available is for 2015. Looking at NCL with its Emirates route the airport handled a relatively small amount of freight that year on its scheduled services. See below link:

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/...2_Summary_Of_Activity_at_UK_Airports_2015.pdf

 

[tpm]

Bristol is a Gamma city in the rankings of the Globalization and World Rankings Research Institute (...). [T]he list hasn't been updated for a few years. So in that sense the city is on the radar.

Cities are divided into Alpha, Beta and Gamma rankings with sub divisions of + and - in each category. There are eight UK cities in the list:

Alpha ++ (the highest ranking) London, with New York being the only other city in this ranking
Beta Manchester
Beta - Edinburgh and Birmingham
Gamma + Bristol
Gamma Glasgow, Leeds and Belfast

The city classification for 2016 was posted just over a month ago. Some downgrades: Manchester down to Beta-, Birmingham down to Gamma+, Bristol down two notches to Gamma-. Belfast down one notch to Gamma-. Edinburgh steady at Beta-. Glasgow and Leeds up one to Gamma+ (overtaking Bristol).

(Apologies if this is getting increasingly off-topic..)

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Thanks for that. I don't think it's necessarily off topic as the strength and size of the local economy must be a leading factor when airlines are looking at where to place long haul routes.

 

[Sierra3]

Quite an interesting article / interview with Robert Sinclair in RoutesOnline

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29...aign=the-hub-MDL&utm_content=the-hub-20170526

Most of it is in the public domain but he does state he's confident about securing long haul to US and Middle East in the next few years.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Quite an interesting article / interview with Robert Sinclair in RoutesOnline

http://www.routesonline.com/news/29...aign=the-hub-MDL&utm_content=the-hub-20170526

Most of it is in the public domain but he does state he's confident about securing long haul to US and Middle East in the next few years.

Thanks for that Sierra3.

I'm not sure that the CEO's words on the ME and US are any more than he'd be expected to say and, indeed, has been saying for the past two or three years.

I was struck by this comment: We’ve got good visibility of growth into 2018 and I can say reasonably confidently that we’ll show good growth again. Growth has come for us across each of the sectors – budget, charter and full-service carriers.

The quote is not crystal clear in meaning but could be taken - 'good growth again' - to refer to the whole of 2018. Thomas Cook's third aircraft plus a possible 15th easyJet aircraft would drive that but I believe there might be something more. The slightly guarded tone - 'reasonably confident' - might be an allusion to Brexit which, depending on outcome, could hamper BRS as it would hamper most UK airports. A 'good' Brexit and the airport could well see another 2016 next year when 800,000 more passengers were handled than in 2015. I suspect that 2017 will see in excess of 400,000 more than 2016.

 

[Jerry]

With the US it's a question of which airline's would be interested. If you look at the US3 they seem to either be retreating from the regions or at least stagnating. I'm wondering if TOM hadn't launched it's flights then TCX could've been a possibility. Could operate JFK, MCO and CUN with 1 based aircraft ie JFK 4 weekly and the others weekly and they do have relationships with US airlines to provide connections the other side. Only other airline i can think of as a possibility in the future would be JetBlue.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Unless the airline is one with good connectivity at EWR or NYC and operates daily, or at least nearly so, it isn't going to be much use so far as helping the local economy is concerned and even then...........

The RoutesOnline piece mentions the proximity of LHR, and most West Country business and many leisure travellers look no further than the Big One just along the M4 when it comes to long-haul scheduled travel. Given the huge choice of airlines and frequencies there that state of mind is unlikely to change substantially even if there was a daily BRS-NYC. It didn't when CO operated to EWR for five and a half years.

If you read between the lines of the BRS CEO's remarks he's not expecting anything very soon - could be several years away, if then..........

 

[TheLocalYokel]

This press release has appeared on the airport's website today.

https://www.bristolairport.co.uk/ab...argets-more-long-haul-after-successful-summer

Bristol Airport targets more long-haul after successful summer
Created: 1st Nov 2017

Following the return of direct long-haul flights to Florida and Mexico this summer and the announcement of flights to the Dominican Republic in 2018, Bristol Airport has reaffirmed its ambitions to secure further long-haul routes.

The Airport, which will be consulting on initial priorities for a new Master Plan later this year, is confident that the success of TUI’s flights using the Boeing 787 ‘Dreamliner’ demonstrate the potential for even more destinations beyond Europe in future.

Bristol Airport’s runway is certified for Code E aircraft, a category which includes the A330 as well as the Dreamliner. This brings destinations across North America, the Caribbean, the Middle East and even parts of the Far East into range. Daily flights to New York operated in the past, before falling victim to the global financial crisis and retrenchment in the airline market. However, the Airport’s strong growth since (Bristol is the only major UK airport to have increased passengers every year since 2009) suggests that long-haul routes are a realistic prospect again.

In addition to existing direct long-haul flights, more than 100,000 passengers travel between Bristol and long-haul destinations via major international hubs including Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Frankfurt and Munich operated by carriers such as Aer Lingus, Brussels Airlines, KLM and bmi regional.

Major investment in the South West, including the development of Hinkley Point C in Somerset, is expected to further boost demand for business travel to and from the region, while initiatives to promote inbound tourism, such as the recently announced Regional Gateway partnership between Bristol Airport and VisitBritain, are set to increase the South West’s profile in overseas markets.

Nigel Scott, Business Development Director at Bristol Airport, said:

“The strong short-haul network available from Bristol is a real asset to the region we serve, but we know businesses in the South West are also looking beyond Europe for new opportunities to trade. That is why we are working hard with existing airline partners to increase the frequency of services to major hubs, as well as exploring the potential for more direct long-haul services east and west. A level playing field on rates of Air Passenger Duty remains vital to achieving these ambitions.”

Having invested more than £160 million in new infrastructure and facilities since 2010, Bristol Airport is well positioned to serve passengers across the South West of the UK, and also provides a gateway to the region for international visitors.

Throughout 2017, Bristol Airport will be celebrating 60 years at its current site. As well as looking back on a rich aviation history, work will begin on an updated Master Plan which will consider how best to meet growing demand for air travel to and from the South West and South Wales over the next two decades. The views of customers, employees, neighbours and others stakeholders will be vital in helping to shape the Airport’s vision for the future.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In addition to existing direct long-haul flights, more than 100,000 passengers travel between Bristol and long-haul destinations via major international hubs including Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Frankfurt and Munich operated by carriers such as Aer Lingus, Brussels Airlines, KLM and bmi regional.

This seems an odd figure. I would have thought the figure is a lot higher than that in a year, given that over 5 million from the South West use the two main London airports, but then 2 million or 100 million is more than than 100,000 I suppose. 90,000 a year used CO to EWR when it operated.

I note the APD comment.

 

[Marko1]

I wonder what their targets may be ? Also note the comment about Apd ? I wonder if brs is in competition with Cwl for some more long haul ? Good to see the note about boosting frequencies on key business routes too in Europe. Surely Turkish must be on the radar for example ?

 

[Jerry]

Well Roger Lewis did say that they were in talks with an airline about North America with Florida and NYC the targets so it would make sense that whoever they are talking to then BRS might want to attract them as well.
The comment about level playing field is interesting. There will never be a level playing field between Bristol and Cardiff, it'll always be skewed towards Bristol even when Wales gets APD devolved, even if it takes a long time but CWL does have it's act together now which will help it grow.
I'm sure BRS will continue to develop it's long haul programme, though it is noticeable that TUI aren't expanding BGI and MBJ during winter 2018/19 maybe the cruises from BHX are the cause of that? I'm also sure Cardiff will continue to develop it's long haul programme as well.

 

[andrewgreen]

Well Roger Lewis did say that they were in talks with an airline about North America with Florida and NYC the targets so it would make sense that whoever they are talking to then BRS might want to attract them as well.
The comment about level playing field is interesting. There will never be a level playing field between Bristol and Cardiff, it'll always be skewed towards Bristol even when Wales gets APD devolved, even if it takes a long time but CWL does have it's act together now which will help it grow.
I'm sure BRS will continue to develop it's long haul programme, though it is noticeable that TUI aren't expanding BGI and MBJ during winter 2018/19 maybe the cruises from BHX are the cause of that? I'm also sure Cardiff will continue to develop it's long haul programme as well.

How have things always been skewed towards Bristol Jerry ?