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Route Development

Discussion in 'Bristol' started by Aviador, Jan 2, 2011.

  1. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    Rosamunde Pilcher a British writer not that well known in her own country wrote numerous novels, some set in Cornwall. German tv filmed them using locations in Cornwall and they became phenomenally popular in Germany leading to what is almost a cult that attracts German visitors to the county year after year.

    Cornwall had been popular with German visitors for many years before the Pilcher effect anyway.

    I don't think a Stuttgart route is likely, with Eurowings or anyone else. Most of the major German airports are covered from BRS one way or another.
     
  2. Sierra3

    Sierra3 Member

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    Think BRS should open a facility like LGW

    http://www.gatwickairport.com/at-the-airport/flying-in/gatwickconnects/

    Might be small to start with but with a large EZY base it could work, it doesn't have to be EZY to EZY.

    One of the arguments for the 3rd runway at LHR is that connecting pax provide the additional volume to make a marginal route profitable, thus increasing the range of destinations to the local Pax.

    Geographically BFS/GLA/INV/EDI/NCL and points north could connect over BRS to points south in Europe where a direct flight is not available from their home airport. The last Master Plan talks about 'connections' (not to mention Long Haul) neither of which have come to pass.

    Understand from posts on this board that connections (even self connect) is not really a goer at BRS as it presently stands
     
  3. Aviador

    Aviador Administrator Staff Member I've upgraded to support F4A!

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    It has been mentioned before somewhere in the forum that Jet2 are willing to park remotely, even on taxiways if they get the right deal with the airport. How this generally works is they wait for the first wave of departures to leave and they tow aircraft onto stand. It's something that is done frequently on a daily basis at Leeds, it's home base airport.

    Whatever is rumoured I know Jet2 well enough now to know that nothing gets out with regards to future expansion. Not these days anyway. The annual general meeting has often been used to announce new bases and this has just been and gone with no announcements. That doesn't mean it wont happen now although it's probably less likely now. It's probably also worth noting any new base announcement would almost certainly now need to be made via the London Stock Exchange.

    Long gone are the days when PM would quietly announce things in general chit-chat, when he would knowingly or unknowingly be announcing it to the world. He was (and still is) a shrewd businessman so I'm sure it was more a case of a purposeful slip of the tong than an accidental one.
     
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  4. Marko1

    Marko1 Active Member

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    It certainly would serve brs well for jet2 to be involved in a quieter wave of departures plus there are now 3 push back stands aren't there ?
     
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  5. Aviador

    Aviador Administrator Staff Member I've upgraded to support F4A!

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    That's how I view it. Forum a business point of view, it makes more sense to put the eggs in more than one basket. It would help to increase the value of the airports as it removes an element of risk relying on just a couple of carriers.
     
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  6. Marko1

    Marko1 Active Member

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    World routes this weekend in Barcelona. I wonder if any new developments may come out of it assuming of course brs are sending a delegation. They used to make a big fuss about it but all quiet these days
     
  7. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member

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    They are on the list of attendees as well as CWL and most of the airports in the UK.
     
  8. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    BRS have attended for many years. They would often make optimistic noises afterwards but on at least one occasion finished with egg on their face (they predicted confidently that a NYC route would return following one of these get-togethers but it didn't). These days they seem to say very little, perhaps because of that.
     
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  9. andrewgreen

    andrewgreen Active Member

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    With the demise of Monarch my first thought was it won’t change anything at Bristol . But will it ?
    With the large gaps now suddenly appearing in the schedules of the likes of Gatwick ,Birmingham,Luton and Manchester is there a possibility some of the airlines at Bristol will think about moving aircraft from there to fill them with potential better yielding seats ?
     
  10. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    It's always possible as it is from any of the 'smaller' airports although BRS isn't one of the smaller 'smaller' airports any more.

    A post elsewhere suggests that MAN will now be getting three new easyJet aircraft next summer instead of the one originally factored in.
     
  11. andrewgreen

    andrewgreen Active Member

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    Yes and i think Liverpool are getting an extra Easy A320 as well lets hope they are new and not moved from Bristol !
     
  12. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member

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    The most likely candidate there would be Easyjet but I'd guess they would probably take aircraft from the continent first. I'd be surprised if they downsized BRS considering how dominant they are at it. Can't see the others doing anything like that either.
     
  13. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    LPL was getting its additional easyJet before the Monarch situation finally ended in its very sad demise. Next summer suggest BRS will have its 15th Airbus (one more than summer 17) and at the moment schedules demand a 16th from mid August. Not sure whether that would have happened anyway as mid-August seems an odd time to bring in an extra aircraft. Perhaps that's the aircraft that won't actually appear.
     
  14. Marko1

    Marko1 Active Member

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    Has anyone actually confirmed no 15 yet from easyJet or Bristol ? Clearly the schedule demands 15 with gaps for new routes but what's more interesting is no16 from august. I cannot imagine that the schedule will stay like it is as we know from last year particularly the no ams on weds . Disappointing to see no marrakech and no Reykjavik next summer. As it stands I make it 9x 320s and 6 x 319s - how many a320s are easyJet are expecting next year plus don't forget all those 320/321 s from monarch lying around
     
  15. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    I've read nothing official about a 15th aircraft; the supposition is based on next year's timetables.

    Jethro has this to say about easyJet aircraft coming on stream. For anyone not familiar with Jethro click on the red background near the top of the page for A319 or A320 in service, or A 320 or A321 on order.

    http://www.jethros.org.uk/fleets/fleet_listings/easyjet.htm
     
  16. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    Jet2 and the rest

    It seems pretty clear now that Jet2 won't begin operating in summer 2018 as was confidently anticipated earlier this year.

    I'm now beginning to doubt that they will be seen at all at BRS in the foreseeable future given the huge increases in aircraft numbers they are putting into Stansted next year and also the substantial growth at MAN, LBA and BHX post Monarch.

    Where will they find yet more aircraft and crews to begin new bases, even in 2019? It's also likely they will consider consolidation at the expanded bases mentioned above before looking at new bases.

    BRS will probably have to depend on the old faithful of easyJet, TUI and TCX but even here growth might be slowed as these airlines seek to fill Monarch gaps elsewhere.

    Since the new post of business development director was created four months ago with, it seems, a responsibility inter alia for supervising route development, things have become very quiet. The incumbent appears to have an impressive senior marketing track record with large, well-known companies but nothing that I'm aware of in the aviation world.

    No doubt the excellent BRS routes team will still be working hard behind the scenes but it's hard to visualise where any major breakthrough will come from in the next year or so in terms of a new airline or airlines.
     
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  17. Marko1

    Marko1 Active Member

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    It's interesting to note that there was certainly pointers to suggest that brs would be the next base a few months ago and I would find it hard to believe that jet2 wouldn't have had some plans for a monarch collapse at that time too . I agree it doesn't look like 2018 is going to be the year for jet2 and who knows it may now be on the back burner for a while now if at all .

    At the moment I be more concerned with easyJet and it's future plans if their intentions to capitalise on the collapse of monarch at Manchester and Gatwick in particular follow through.

    Additionally I did see a rumour mentioned that Ryanair plans to go back to 5 based next year not sure how accurate that is tho with Bergerac zadar castellon and reus still not sale. Can't help thinking Ryanair is not achieving it's potential out of brs
     
  18. Jerry

    Jerry Moderator Staff Member

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    Easyjet are pretty commited to BRS so I'd imagine they'd continue to build the base up even if it's bringing in larger aircraft ie A321s and deploying them on the more popular routes.
    Ryanair basing a 5th aircraft would be a good boost for BRS and I'd have to say a big blow to CWL. If FR do base a 5th aircraft i wonder if they would introduce any new routes?
     
  19. TheLocalYokel

    TheLocalYokel Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm not too concerned about easyJet although as you say growth in the short term might be curtailed a bit because of the 'Monarch effect'.

    Some of the Ryanair routes not yet available for next summer were late being put on sale for summer 17. Bergerac and Reus didn't begin in summer 17 until June.

    The number of aircraft Ryanair bases at BRS doesn't seem to affect their overall programme. Ryanair has had five aircraft based at BRS in the past. In 2013 they reduced it from five to two based aircraft because of reported disagreements with the airport over peak time charges and overnight parking charges, but maintained the same programme (actually slightly increased it) using aircraft from their other bases. This had the beneficial effect to BRS of the majority of Ryanair aircraft arriving and departing outside peak times, although some of the late arrivals in resort might not have been so appealing to passengers.

    In 2014 they upped the base to four with the slack taken up by aircraft from elsewhere. If they do go to five next summer it will probably just mean that there will be fewer flights operated by non BRS-based aircraft.
     
  20. Kingshat

    Kingshat New Member

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    A quick reality check.

    Bristol will likely see 8.2 million passengers in 2017 and currently has a planning permission cap of 10mppa. 5% growth would deliver 8.6mppa in 2018, 9mppa in 2019, 9.5mppa in 2020 and just under the magic 10 million by 2021.
    Let's assume a new operator bases 2 aircraft, each flying 3 return routes a day with 140 passengers per trip - a total of 840 pax per aircraft or 1680 for the carrier per day. This equates to 613,000 passengers per annum. If you add those figures to the organic growth Bristol will exceed its planning permission before the end of 2020 (assuming that operator doesn't look to base additional aircraft), but the airport doesn't even have a new Masterplan, yet alone one that has been through the full consultation and planning process.
    So what do you think the likes of 'Conns' have been asked to do? Go out and find low yield flights that might be in direct competition with current business partners that will quickly eat into the remaining passenger quota before the airport is ready to expand, or concentrate on good quality, high yield growth that will allow the airport to develop slowly whilst the planning process runs its course?
    It is quite possible that we will see some low cost airlines that are keen to operate in the southwest region going to other smaller airports in the next couple of years; however I'm sure Bristol Airport will be working hard to explain that they will be welcome once the cap is raised to 20mppa.
     
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