CAA Provisional Statistics Update

CAA stats May 2015

Now that EXT has its own complete forum I've commenced a CAA stats thread. For the past few years most months' figures have been published in the EXT general thread.

In May the airport handled 80,125 passengers, up 3.4% on May 2014. Atms were down 3.1% and the rolling 12-month figure stood at 799,977, an increase of 7% on ths time last year.

After dropping from over 1 mppa in 2007 to just under 700,000 a couple of years ago most months since then have seen steady passenger rises. May is no exception.

As in the past few months the Flybe routes to Manchester (4 x daily to link into Flybe's MAN hub) and to London City have been the main drivers of the increase.

Good job TheLocalYokel to keep tabs on all the stats.
Exeter has quite a few odd Flybe destinations which I don't believe are served by other UK airports. One I can think of is Faro.

Good job TheLocalYokel to keep tabs on all the stats.
Exeter has quite a few odd Flybe destinations which I don't believe are served by other UK airports. One I can think of is Faro.

Click to expand...

I've been keeping an eye on the South West and South Wales aviation scene for many, many years. From the 60s until the mid 80s there wasn't much to be concerned with because there were so few flights. Civil aviation (mainly the economics) has been an interest of mine for so many years although I do have other interests not remotely connected with flying.

Flybe also flies to Faro from SOU and from CWL - the latter route commenced this month as part of the airline's new initiative at that airport.

EXT is dominated by Flybe - the airline has its headquarters, engineering base and training school there of course. Apart from the Scilly Skybus there is no other scheduled airline serving EXT. Charter-wise there is a TOM B 738 based there and other non-based charter airlines also appear mainly in summer to the sun spots.

EXT is probably too small a market for one of the major locos so Flybe enjoys a niche position there.

CAA Stats June 2015

A milestone at EXT this month with the rolling 12-month total back above 800,000, something not seen for several years.

91,526 passengers used the airport, up 5.2% on June 2014 with atms seeing a rise of 2.1%. The rolling 12-month total was 804,467, an increase of 7.1% on a year ago.

Looking ahead

The then government's white paper of 2003 put a duty on airports to publish master plans for the years until 2015, with less detailed information/projections/forecasts for the period from 2015 to 2030.

I've had a look at the master plans for the main airports in the South West and South Wales (BRS, CWL and EXT) to see how accurate their passenger number projection numbers have turned out to be.

The BRS master plan was published in 2006 and suggested 8.076 mppa in 2015 (with 157,000 long haul scheduled passengers and 178,000 long haul charter passengers - the actual total so far this year is nil). It's likely that the final 2015 total will be around 6.7 mppa.

BRS forecast 12.476 mppa in 2030, something that will not be achieved unless the current planning restriction of 10 mppa is removed.

CWL's master plan, also published in 2006, projected 4.796 mppa in 2015. The actual total will almost certainly be under 1.1 mppa. In 2030 CWL thinks it will be handling 7.813 mppa.

Finally, EXT published its master plan in 2009 and forecast between 1.415 and 1.956 mppa in 2015 (they have best and worst case scenarios). EXT is likely to have handled somewhere between 0.8 and 0.85 mppa by the end of 2015. In 2030 the airport believes it will be handling between 1.926 and 4.037 mppa.

It will be seen that BRS has come closest to its projected 2015 figures although EXT has given itself more leeway in its projections, an approach that is arguably realistic and sensible.

Of course, no-one could have anticipated the massive recession that affected the world and had an undoubted adverse effect on the growth of airports nearly everywhere around the globe.

CAA stats July 2015

93,280 passengers handled in the month, up 3.6% on July 2014. Atms were up 1.3%. Rolling 12-month total was 807,925, up 7.1% on a year ago.

The steady improvement of the past two years continues.

August 2015

CAA stats show that 95,978 passengers were handled at EXT in August this year, an increase of 1.4% on August 2014. Atms were up 1.2%. Rolling 12-month total was 809,106, up 7% on a year ago.

So it's as you were with yet another increase although the rate of growth is slowing a bit.

September 2015

CAA stats show that 86,777 passengers were handled at EXT in September this year, an increase of 2.7% on September 2014. Atms were up 2.8%. Rolling 12-month total was 811,365, up 6.9% on a year ago.

So again it's as you were with yet another increase although the rate of growth is still slowing a bit.

CAA stats October 2015

EXT had a very productive October with 74,653 passengers using the terminal, an increase of 23% on October 2014. Atms were up 14.8% with the rolling 12-month total standing at 825,292, up 9.3% on a year ago.

The 23% increase resulted in an additional 14,000 passengers made up mainly from Flybe sun routes to ALC, AGP and FAO that didn't operate last October generating around 8,500, and Flybe's London City that had only begun to operate in October 2014 seeing an additional 3,500 passengers. NCL (Flybe) saw over 2,000 more passengers.

CAA stats November 2015

46,628 passengers handled during the month, down 4.6% on November 2014. Atms were down 11.1%

Rolling 12-month total was 822,891, up 8.1% on a year ago.

It seems the main culprits were the Flybe routes to Manchester and London City which together saw around 2,500 fewer passengers than the previous November.

CAA stats December 2015

46,389 passengers handled during the month, down 3% on December 2014. Atms were down 9%.

Rolling 12-month total was 821,257, up 7.1% on a year ago.

The slight fall seems to be due to the same reasons set out for November's fall.

CAA stats January 2016

42,509 passengers handled during the month, down 3.8% on January 2015. Atms were down 14.1%.

Rolling 12-month total was 819,496, up 5.4% on a year ago.

The slight fall seems to be due to the same reasons outlined for November's and December's falls.

February 2016

CAA stats show another small drop in the month which continues the trend through the current winter.

46,012 passengers were handled during the month, down 1.4% on February 2015. Atms were down 8.9%. Rolling 12-month total was 818,756, up 4.1% on a year ago.

The extra day for the leap means that the slight percentage drop in passenger numbers would have been greater without it.

March 2016

Yet again another small drop in passenger numbers as has been the case right through the winter. It's one of the difficulties of relying almost exclusively on one airline (Flybe in EXT's case) for scheduled traffic. The makin cause is the reduction in LCY rotations since last year.

CAA stats show that 54,365 passengers used the airport, a drop of 1.3% on March 2015. Atms were down 4.3%. Rolling 12-month total was 817,688, up 2.9% on a year ago.

The summer ought to see some passenger number gains with increased Flybe sun routes.

April 2016

CAA stats published at long last. 61,885 passengers passed through the terminal, up 2.7% on April 2015. Atms were up 7.9%. Rolling 12-month total was 819,319, up 2.8% on a year ago. The first monthly gain, albeit a modest one, for several months.

May 2016

Belatedly published CAA stats show 80,819 passengers used the terminal, up 0.9% on May 2015. Atms were up 8.8%. Rolling 12-month total was 820,012, up 2.5% on a year ago. So more modest progress in May.

June 2016

The CAA has published some stats in the past couple of days but they are in a mess as the authority has been forced to admit. Some tables have been discontinued and others not published at the moment including the 'league table' of airports.

Nevertheless by trawling through those tables that are available, doing some maths and comparing them with the tables a year ago, I've arrived at these figures for EXT in June.

91,062 passengers used the terminal, down 0.5% on June 2015. Rolling 12-month total was 819,548, up 1.87% on a year ago.

July 2016

CAA stats published at last. They show the airport handled 97,170 passengers in July, up 4.1% on July 2015. Atms were also up 4.1%. Rolling 12-month total was 823,372, up 1.9% on a year ago.

September 2016

EXT is one of a small number of airports for which the CAA has published statistics for September. August's figures have not been published for any airport.

September handled 89,742 passengers, up 3.4% on September 2015. Atms were also up 3.4%. Rolling 12-month total was 831,679, up 2.5% on the same period a year ago.

So the slow but generally positive trend continues.

October 2016

CAA stats show that 77,911 passengers used the airport in the month, up 4.6% on October 2015. Atms were up 5.7%. Rolling 12-month total was 835,077, an increase of 1.2% on a year ago.

Another quietly positive month.