Bhx appears to be going backwards with regards the full service airlines and going towards the "Lo cost" option instead

Yet the one loco that we want don't seem to be interested :(

Athens, Basle, Schoenfeld, Bilbao, Lisbon, Nice, Stockholm, Toulouse, Marseille and Olbia! All Easyjet routes from Bristol that are now, or soon will be, unserved from BHX.

Time to step up that campaign Brum X (y)
 
Given that airlines will be starting to plan for 2019 soon (if they haven't already) and nobody in the UK seems to have a clue what is going on you can understand their caution.
I made caution bold here, as I personally think no these airlines aren't stupid. They can see the massive potential at BHX and it isn't just us being an optimistic bunch with glasses half full, but with Brexit leaving massive uncertainty and seeing what happened to Monarch, I think the airlines are playing defensive.

I'm not a politician and I'm certainly not 'in the know' about Brexit, and it is far from the root cause. But I think if it hadn't of happened we would have seen at least something from EZY. Especially after Monarch ceasing trading, I think they would have snapped up some of the sun routes. Don't rule EZY out as I personally think once the short-haul market "calms down" in the wake of Brexit and the Monarch collapse, they may just surprise us.

Just my opinion though!!

We're very lucky to be able to facilitate an ambitious airline like Primera and I hope it works out for them. Excited to hear what else they have up their Icelandic sleeves :D
 
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Yeah i dont see them basing at BHX, well not for a while anyway but i think they really would have to be properly stupid to overlook BHX completely
 
Brexit is to easy to blame for the current pessimism,it goes back further.
When the locos (seems a dated term now) first started BHX were not interested and i have seen reported were quite anti.These airlines set up bases elsewhere and thrived.
When BHX realised they were in danger of completely missing the bus they encouraged anyone who asked to
start up one maybe two routes, with no based aircraft, and were more than happy for another airline to come in and duplicate the routes.
I can only imagine the reaction of an airline who negotiates to start an unserved route and a year later finds they are competing with 3 other airlines.Probably WTF.
Result these airlines had no commitment to BHX and if their yield was below expected there is no reason for them to
try and develop the route. Goodbye BHX.
Meanwhile passengers from the BHX catchment area travel to other airports and the airlines are quite happy for this to continue.Why wouldn't they?
I'm afraid its a case of chickens coming home to roost
 
Brexit is to easy to blame for the current pessimism,it goes back further.
When the locos (seems a dated term now) first started BHX were not interested and i have seen reported were quite anti.These airlines set up bases elsewhere and thrived.
When BHX realised they were in danger of completely missing the bus they encouraged anyone who asked to
start up one maybe two routes, with no based aircraft, and were more than happy for another airline to come in and duplicate the routes.
I can only imagine the reaction of an airline who negotiates to start an unserved route and a year later finds they are competing with 3 other airlines.Probably WTF.
Result these airlines had no commitment to BHX and if their yield was below expected there is no reason for them to try and develop the route. Goodbye BHX.
Meanwhile passengers from the BHX catchment area travel to other airports and the airlines are quite happy for this to continue.Why wouldn't they?
I'm afraid its a case of chickens coming home to roost

I'd say that just about sums it up perfectly.
 
I seem to remember BHX having MyTravelLite in the early years of this century. Did they have four aircraft based before they were absorbed into MyTravel 'mainline'?
 
Brexit is to easy to blame for the current pessimism,it goes back further.
When the locos (seems a dated term now) first started BHX were not interested and i have seen reported were quite anti.These airlines set up bases elsewhere and thrived.
When BHX realised they were in danger of completely missing the bus they encouraged anyone who asked to
start up one maybe two routes, with no based aircraft, and were more than happy for another airline to come in and duplicate the routes.
I can only imagine the reaction of an airline who negotiates to start an unserved route and a year later finds they are competing with 3 other airlines.Probably WTF.
Result these airlines had no commitment to BHX and if their yield was below expected there is no reason for them to
try and develop the route. Goodbye BHX.
Meanwhile passengers from the BHX catchment area travel to other airports and the airlines are quite happy for this to continue.Why wouldn't they?
I'm afraid its a case of chickens coming home to roost

I generally could not disagree more to be frank, and whilst things are looking challenging for 2018, I honestly think people are taking this too personally. This ISNT just a Birmingham thing, this IS a UK thing. It may be Brexit, it may be Sterling, it may be Oil prices, or as I suggest, a bit of everything. However, again I like to stick with facts, and these are what we know....

- for a vast majority of airlines that have reduced their presence at Birmingham (Cobalt being the only exception I can think of), they have reduced capacity at other UK airports within the last 12-18 months. If they were only reducing BHX and growing everywhere else, I would be concerned, but they are not!!! Monarch gone for every one of their bases, Norwegian and Vueling, have similar reductions ate MAN and EDI, United and America Gone from BRS, BFS and NCL and reduced at MAN and EDI, WIZZ reduced from BRS, DSA, GLA, and the latest one Aegean, also cut capacity at MAN. This is not just a BHX issue.

- but there is still great news we should be looking at. Yes we have lost our 3rd largest customer (through no fault of our own) but we then have a new customer growing by over 100% at BHX going from 4 based a/c to 8 based a/c in one year, we have a new long-haul base opening, and we still have an extensive portfolio of airlines across both the full service, national carrier and low-cost spectrums.

- however in times such as this, BHX NEEDS diversity, and getting in bed with the large airlines and selling yourself to do it is not the answer, especially if getting into bed with an airline can scare off other. BHX should only do deals with airlines where the deals are good for both parties. If EZY do not set up a base at BHX, I have every faith that BHX management have made the right decision. if they do, then I have faith that is the right thing for both parties. However, I am in no rush to sell our souls to them anymore than I want BHX to sell its souls to BA.

- and finally, can we please stop banging on that EZY are the answer... yes by all means they could part of AN answer, but they are not THE answer. Yes EZY operate 60+ routes from BRS and fly t many routes that BHX don't have, but equally, BHX offers many routes that BRS don't have or have lost. Add to that EZY are probably the very reason why BRS only have 10 airlines operating year round compared to BHX that has 31 airlines operating year round. they are also the most likely reason BRS has lost their only chance of commercial flights to America (via WOW)!

Yes the next few years are going to be a little stormy and yes there is a lot of uncertainty in the UK regions with regard to aviation. But Birmingham is a big airport that has a lot going for it, and is a very different airport to the one that went into the last economically unstable period.
 
however in times such as this, BHX NEEDS diversity

I wouldn't totally disagree but lately Birmingham's diversity seems to consist of several players all on the same routes rather than one or two new airlines offering some serious diversity in their network.

Norwegian on Barcelona, Malaga and Tenerife, Vueling on Barcelona Malaga and Tenerife, Jet2 with Malaga and Tenerife, BACF with Malaga, Ryanair and Monarch massively expanding their frequencies to Barcelona, Malaga and Tenerife. Anybody see a pattern?

Fantastic for the consumer with such a range of choices and some rock bottom fares but disastrous for the airlines with yields falling through the floor. Obviously we will never know the intricate details but some of the prices this year have been as low as I've ever seen and numerous airline CEO's have warned about over capacity.

and finally, can we please stop banging on that EZY are the answer... yes by all means they could part of AN answer, but they are not THE answer.

It's an opinion and one that is shared by quite a few people. You know I respect your opinion but we have a right to disagree.

Yes EZY operate 60+ routes from BRS and fly t many routes that BHX don't have, but equally, BHX offers many routes that BRS don't have or have lost.

That's alright then. Birmingham have lost Lisbon, Stockholm, Valencia, Nice, Athens, Toulouse, Gibraltar and Preveza but because we have other routes not available elsewhere we shouldn't worry.

Going back to diversity, for me it's diversity of routes that is needed, NOT diversity of airlines all flying to the same place.

Lets look at Jet2 as an example. They have taken the package holiday market by storm, bringing in a good product, advertising it well and backing up their claims with good service. Their BASED aircraft not only do the core sun routes but will also offer once unserved routes such as Pisa, Thessaloniki and Split along with a few city break routes mixed in. A real DIVERSITY of destinations and as a result we're seeing a doubling of capacity next year. Would they have had the same success if they'd just added flights to Palma, Alicante, Malaga, Tenerife and Faro using away based aircraft? No they wouldn't. What they have done in seven months is now far more valuable to BHX than anything that Norwegian or Vueling did in three or so years.

For me Easyjet have the potential to be the Jet2 of the flight only market and I'm struggling to think of another airline that could potentially fill all of those voids along with having enough clout in the UK market to make it work from the off.

If EZY do not set up a base at BHX, I have every faith that BHX management have made the right decision.

I agree with this and as much as I want Easyjet to fill the gaps that we have there has to be some concern over our full service airlines.

Lets say that Easyjet open a route to Copenhagen. No problem, they are a different market to SAS and the two may work well on the route. Suddenly, after seeing what Easyjet are doing, Ryanair then start Copenhagen and before you know it there is massive over capacity and we end up saying bye bye to SAS. All totally hypothetical but it's the one concern that I have.

I suppose BHX have the numbers and only they will know whether it a is gamble worth taking.
 
There are some really good and important points being made here. But let's not get too down. I 100% agree with Ray that there are too many airlines on the same old routes. Exactly how many people want to fly to Malaga?

No doubt the BHX team work tirelessly to diversify the network and in particular in seeking flights to the business locations which the city and region....not the airport.... needs. But it all depends on the guarantee of ticket sales. For however much we want Finnair, if they cannot guarantee sales they will not come.

BHX has a limited catchment wedged between London and the hub of the North. The Midlands has always been at the crossroads of England's transport - canals, then rail, then the motorways and now airports with various parts being equally served by East Midlands, Manchester, Luton, Heathrow, Bristol and with BHX serving predominantly the but in the middle. No other part of the UK is so well connected to the transport amd airport network. Oh to have 10 million people from across the North Midlands and the North to call upon or the 15 million plus that Heathrow has...plus a world city. I live in Essex and believe me the Midlands has amazing connectivity.

But the Midlands super connectivity is BHX's achilles heel. We are always going to struggle to retain airlines when they can equally fly into airports with wider catchments guaranteeing bums on seats and that can also serve the Midlands.

Then there is the rationalisation of the airline industry. We have seen national carriers go. We have seen the likes of Monarch and Air Berlin. Regional carriers are vulnerable. But the new players are the low cost airlines who will take on anyone where they feel they can get a good bargain with an airport...not necessarily the most convenient one....and take out the opposition.

BHX has come a long way, but the fact that it's recent amazing growth has coincided with the airport opening up to low cost airlines proves where it's market lies. That is the market which a limited catchment will serve.

Unless someone with smaller aircraft but good yields and the backing to maintain and build a network comes along to develop and stay with the lower volume routes...Scandinavia for instance....then I would not expect much to happen.

It is a great pity that some routes Come and go (and come and go). I have said a many a time that BHX needs to build its city to city base and not focus on the leisure market. Ironically when BHX was a business orientated airport, Manchester was the package operators airport. Now it appears to be swinging the other way.

But times remain good and with over 40 new routes in the pipeline - the TUI growth into the long haul market Caribbean is under reported - and a little patience everything will be fine and the unserved routes will not remain that way for too long.
 
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I think I get what woody is going on about. Looking at the routes we've lost, we do in fact have a decent variety of carriers potentially able to step up and take them over.

Lisbon - TAP
Stockholm - SAS
Athens - Ryanair
Toulouse - Ryanair (although Flybe will probably return in a year or two!)
Valencia - Ryanair
Nice - Jet2
Only Gibraltar would require an easyJet base.

So let's say all the above carriers start those routes. It would be very "easy" for the orange brigade to serve them all, but if the BHX-easyJet relationship turned sour we could face losing them all at once in a route cull. But in the above scenario you would need five or six different airlines to get unhappy with BHX for all the routes to be lost (certainly possible though!).

The problem is, the RD team have a lot more work to do with several airlines if they want true diversity and not the price-slashing kind which Ray mentioned above. Out of our based airlines who could add routes outside the "bucket and spade" destinations? Ryanair don't look interested and Jet2's range of city destinations is tiny compared to them. Flybe are in retreat. Add in the fact that many foreign airlines need persuading that they could extend UK coverage beyond the "London - Manchester - Scotland" route trio that I am seeing more and more often, and you can see why easyJet are such a tempting proposition.
 
I generally could not disagree more to be frank, and whilst things are looking challenging for 2018, I honestly think people are taking this too personally. This ISNT just a Birmingham thing, this IS a UK thing. It may be Brexit, it may be Sterling, it may be Oil prices, or as I suggest, a bit of everything. However, again I like to stick with facts, and these are what we know....

- for a vast majority of airlines that have reduced their presence at Birmingham (Cobalt being the only exception I can think of), they have reduced capacity at other UK airports within the last 12-18 months. If they were only reducing BHX and growing everywhere else, I would be concerned, but they are not!!! Monarch gone for every one of their bases, Norwegian and Vueling, have similar reductions ate MAN and EDI, United and America Gone from BRS, BFS and NCL and reduced at MAN and EDI, WIZZ reduced from BRS, DSA, GLA, and the latest one Aegean, also cut capacity at MAN. This is not just a BHX issue.

- but there is still great news we should be looking at. Yes we have lost our 3rd largest customer (through no fault of our own) but we then have a new customer growing by over 100% at BHX going from 4 based a/c to 8 based a/c in one year, we have a new long-haul base opening, and we still have an extensive portfolio of airlines across both the full service, national carrier and low-cost spectrums.

- however in times such as this, BHX NEEDS diversity, and getting in bed with the large airlines and selling yourself to do it is not the answer, especially if getting into bed with an airline can scare off other. BHX should only do deals with airlines where the deals are good for both parties. If EZY do not set up a base at BHX, I have every faith that BHX management have made the right decision. if they do, then I have faith that is the right thing for both parties. However, I am in no rush to sell our souls to them anymore than I want BHX to sell its souls to BA.

- and finally, can we please stop banging on that EZY are the answer... yes by all means they could part of AN answer, but they are not THE answer. Yes EZY operate 60+ routes from BRS and fly t many routes that BHX don't have, but equally, BHX offers many routes that BRS don't have or have lost. Add to that EZY are probably the very reason why BRS only have 10 airlines operating year round compared to BHX that has 31 airlines operating year round. they are also the most likely reason BRS has lost their only chance of commercial flights to America (via WOW)!

Yes the next few years are going to be a little stormy and yes there is a lot of uncertainty in the UK regions with regard to aviation. But Birmingham is a big airport that has a lot going for it, and is a very different airport to the one that went into the last economically unstable period.

You are right about Bristol relying heavily on easyJet- over 50% of its annual passenger numbers but BRS and BHX aren't really in the same league.

BRS has a tiny site with poor road connectivity and no rail. It has a short runway and indifferent weather. All this makes it remarkable that it handles over 8 mppa and is realistically looking at 15 mppa at some in the future. It is essentially a short-haul airport and relies on the likes of AMS, DUB, FRA and BRU for its long haul via those hubs. LHR is the default direct long haul just up the road and heavily used by BRS-area passengers.
 
Evening all,

Dried fruit forum reporting SK to start ARN-BHX next summer. Hopefully with a better timetable than the last try. Good news.

Cheers

Karl

Good news if confirmed.

In typical BHX style, yesterday we see Aegean go and today maybe we see SAS expand. This airport is crazy at times, i really cannot get my head around it all sometimes.

But yeah lets hope they are more commited to this route this time compared to last time but at 1 weekly, mmmmmmmmmmmmmm
 

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